多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压锡价：沪锡日评20251117-20251117

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Myanmar's Wa State tin mine is resuming production slowly, which leads to a tight supply - demand expectation. However, multiple Fed officials' hawkish stance on a December rate cut may put pressure on tin prices, causing an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices [1] - On the supply side, the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Indonesia, along with a significant drop in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, indicate a tight supply - demand outlook. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased (or remained flat) compared to last week [1] - On the demand side, the daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month. The new energy vehicle and AI sectors bring optimistic demand expectations, but high tin prices lead to less downstream just - in - time procurement [1] - In terms of inventory, the refined tin inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, China's tin ingot social inventory, and the LME's refined tin inventory have all increased compared to last week [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Tin Market Data - On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai tin spot was 298,140 yuan, a decrease of 6,690 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 151,802 lots, a decrease of 47,866 lots. The open interest was 43,594 lots, a decrease of 7,253 lots. The inventory was 8,699 tons, an increase of 234 tons [1] - The SMM No. 1 tin average price was 296,000 yuan, a decrease of 3,900 yuan. The Shanghai tin basis was - 2,140 yuan, an increase of 2,790 yuan. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was - 890 yuan, an increase of 1,440 yuan [1] London Tin Market Data - On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was 36,860 US dollars, a decrease of 205 US dollars compared to the previous day. The spread between the LME tin futures 0 - 3 - month contract was - 87.5 US dollars, a decrease of 102.8 US dollars. The spread between the 3 - 15 - month contract was 131 US dollars, a decrease of 36 US dollars [1] - The global LME tin inventory was 3,065 tons, with no change. The registered LME tin warrants were 2,950 tons, with no change. The cancelled LME tin warrants were 115 tons, with no change. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.04, a decrease of 0.14 [1] Trading Strategy - Lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support levels around 260,000 - 270,000 for Shanghai tin and 33,000 - 35,000 for London tin, as well as the resistance levels around 300,000 - 310,000 for Shanghai tin and 38,000 - 40,000 for London tin [1]