集运日报：11月运价未达宣涨幅度，盘面多空博弈，已建议提前布局02合约，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In November, the freight rate did not reach the announced increase, and there was a long - short game in the market. It is recommended to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2] - After the wide - range shock of the market, attention should be paid to the tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the spot freight rate [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 14, the NCFI (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 points, up 24.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, up 4.9%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% [1] - On November 14, the SCFI was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4%; the SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1%; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7%; the SCFI US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59%; the CCFI (US West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% [1] Economic Data - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, previous value 45; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, previous value 51.4; the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, previous value 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 previously, forecast - 8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The US October S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, expected 53.5, previous value 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, previous value 53.9 [2] Contract Information - On November 14, the main contract 2602 closed at 1605.0, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 20,000 lots and an open interest of 38,000 lots, an increase of 759 lots from the previous day [3] - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract at the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4] - The arbitrage strategy suggests waiting and seeing or lightly trying under the current situation [4] - The long - term strategy suggests taking profits when the contracts rise and waiting for a pull - back to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Information - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel will not establish a Palestinian state, the IDF will驻守 the Hermon mountain peak and its security zone, the Gaza Strip will be demilitarized, and Hamas will be disarmed [5] - The Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip is broken, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [5]