鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有落-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The egg market shows weak performance based on normal supply - demand without festival support. Egg prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, with limited upward and downward space. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [5][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin. Egg prices first rose and then fell. The price of old hens fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected to be stable to weak next week, with an average weekly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis The national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume from November 13th to the end of the week was 19.47 million, a 1.8% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 493 days, the same as the previous week. In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a 0.01 - billion decrease from the previous month, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The egg - chick monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little month - on - month change and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis As of November 13th, the comprehensive feed cost was about 2503 yuan/ton, and the feed cost per jin of eggs was about 2.75 yuan/jin. The egg - laying hen breeding cost increased slightly this week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week; on November 6th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 6.1 yuan/feather, a 1.19 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis The demand in the selling areas first increased and then decreased this week, with the sales volume increasing by 1.1% week - on - week. As of November 13th, the national representative selling - area egg sales volume was 7382 tons. The inventory in the production and trading links increased passively. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled chickens has increased recently, the in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still high, and the short - term production reduction will be gradual. The short - term egg price is expected to be weak with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory The in - production egg - laying hen inventory data for different years from 2018 to 2025 are presented, and the data for October 2024 shows a slight decrease from the previous month [12][23]. 3.2.2 Culling Situation The weekly culling volume data of egg - laying hens from 2020 to 2025 are provided, and the culling volume from November 13th to the end of the week decreased by 1.8% compared with the previous week [12][24]. 3.2.3 Chick - rearing and Complementary Stocking The monthly chick - rearing complementary stocking volume data of sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are given, and the data for October 2024 shows little month - on - month change and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12][25]. 3.2.4 Price Difference and Basis The basis data of January, May, and September contracts from 2018 to 2025, as well as the price difference data between different contracts, are presented [31][32][35].