白糖周报：巴西制糖比下降，全球增产或不及预期-20251117

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Decline in Brazil's Sugar Production Ratio, Global Output Increase May Fall Short of Expectations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the global main producing areas are still realizing increased production, but Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production expectations of Brazil and India. Brazil's final sugar production may fall short of previous expectations due to a significant decline in the sugar production ratio. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. In the domestic market, the short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is still some downward pressure on sugar prices, but the space is relatively limited [3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral aspect, it is recommended to operate within a range considering the international and domestic sugar price trends; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Analysis: Internationally, the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the adjustment of global sugar production expectations affect the international sugar price trend. Domestically, the start of sugar mills' production, import policies, and cost factors influence the domestic sugar price trend. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within a range [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - 2025/26 Sugar Surplus Reduction: Czarnikow raised the estimated surplus of the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, while Datagro lowered its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 100,000 tons. Datagro also lowered the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India, and major importers such as China and Indonesia increased their purchases at low prices [8][10]. 2. Brazil's Sugar Production Situation - High - Level Production Forecast: According to Conab data, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in August and the second - highest in recent years [11]. - Significant Decline in the Bi - weekly Sugar Production Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil: In the second half of October 2025, the sugar production ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased by 3 percentage points to 46.02%, while the ethanol production increased [13]. - Year - on - Year Increase in Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil in This Season: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%, but the cumulative ethanol production decreased by 6.91% [18]. - Significant Increase in Sugar Inventory and Exports: As of the second half of October, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was 12.1107 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.99%. Brazil exported about 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [23]. 3. Sugar Production in Other Countries - Slight Increase in Thailand's New Season: The 2024/25 season's sugar production was 10.05 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase, with an expected increase in exports of 1 million tons [27]. - India's Sugar Production and Policy: ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.35 million tons, and the net production after excluding ethanol use would be 30.95 million tons. The Indian government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, and the northern states raised the purchase price of sugarcane [35]. 4. Domestic Sugar Market Situation - Sugar Mills Start Production: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Guangxi have started or are about to start production. The start - up time in Guangxi has been postponed, and the number of start - up mills is expected to be significantly lower than the same period last year [39]. - High Import Profits: The import profit situation of sugar from Brazil and Thailand shows that there are certain profit opportunities [40][41]. - Decline in Import Volume: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, and the import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the import volume in October will be similar to that of last year [48]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on Brazil's sugar production, including cumulative sugar production, cumulative cane crushing volume, bi - weekly sugar production ratio, etc.; India's sugar production and export data; Thailand's sugar production and export data; and China's sugar production, import volume, and inventory data [14][17][23][39][48]