苹果周报：新一期入库量公布，果价稳中有涨-20251117

Report Title - Apple Weekly: New Phase Inbound Volume Announced, Apple Prices Stable with a Slight Increase [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations are that cold - storage inbound data will likely be lower. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is likely to be lower than last year, and the available inventory is expected to be low, so the apple fundamentals are strong. One can consider buying on dips for unilateral trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [15] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the inbound work of new - season late - maturing Fuji apples is nearing completion, mainly concentrated in western Shandong Qixia and Shanxi Yuncheng. Outbound work has started, mainly for foreign - trade goods and some merchants replenishing the market. The sales area market is in the off - season, with a weak trading atmosphere. The increasing supply of citrus fruits is squeezing the apple sales space. - In the Shandong production area, the ground trading is ending, and the inbound work continues. The inbound of farmers' goods has significantly increased. The prices of different grades of late - maturing Fuji vary, with standard first - and second - grade goods being scarce. - In the Shaanxi production area, the late - maturing Fuji trading is ending, and the inbound work is ongoing but at a slower pace. The remaining supply quality has declined, and the trading price has slightly decreased. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average [7] 2. Supply Analysis - As of November 13, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 55.87%, 7.52 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a storage volume of 735.77 million tons, 12.13% lower than last year. - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 55.47%, an increase of 6.52 percentage points this week. The inbound is mainly in western Qixia. The proportion of high - quality first - and second - grade goods is low, and the proportion of general and third - grade fruits is high. - In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 54.63%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points this week. There is obvious goods flow between different production areas, and the inventory in Luochuan has increased significantly. - In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 69.28%, a decrease of 2.10 percentage points this week. There is both inbound and outbound, and the number of cold - storage seeking merchants is large [11] 3. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has changed little. The prices of different varieties of apples vary, and the purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers is average. The new - season late - maturing Fuji has slow sales, and there is pressure on daily digestion and inventory backlog. - On November 13, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 7.32 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday, at a medium - high level in recent years. - For the 2025 - 2026 production season in the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [14] 4. Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Unilateral: Considering the strong apple fundamentals and the recent increase in spot prices, one can consider buying on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Apple Supply - Demand Situation - Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, and production are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [19] 2. Inventory and Shipment - Data on national and Shandong cold - storage apple inventory trends and national cold - storage apple outbound trends are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [22] 3. Spread and Basis - Data on different spread and basis (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 1 - month basis, 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis) over the years are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [26]