造船板块跟踪点评：二手船价向上穿越新造船价，关注航运景气度向造船传导

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the shipbuilding sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - Historical review shows that improvements in shipping sub-sectors gradually transmit to upstream shipbuilding, with significant price movements observed after a lag of approximately four months following increases in container and oil shipping rates [2][3]. - The second-hand ship price index is expected to surpass the new ship price index, indicating a potential super-cycle in the shipping and shipbuilding sectors. This has occurred four times since 2000, with three instances leading to super-cycle conditions [3]. - The oil tanker charter rates are rising, suggesting an acceleration in the oil shipping sector's recovery, which may positively influence the shipbuilding market as older vessels exit the market [3]. - The new ship price index has shown a weekly increase, primarily driven by rising oil tanker prices, reflecting the transmission of shipping sector recovery to shipbuilding [3]. - Shipbuilding companies are currently undervalued, with significant order backlogs and low market capitalization to order value ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - In 2021, the container shipping sector's recovery led to a subsequent rise in shipbuilding stocks after a four-month lag [2]. - In 2022, the oil shipping sector saw a similar pattern, with shipbuilding stocks following oil shipping price increases after a four-month delay [2]. - The anticipated recovery in the container shipping sector in 2024 is expected to align with the shipbuilding sector's performance [2]. Price Trends - The second-hand ship price index is projected to stabilize and exceed previous highs by late 2025, marking a significant trend reversal [3]. - The new ship price index has recently increased by 0.03% week-on-week, driven by oil tanker price increases [3]. Valuation Insights - Key companies in the shipbuilding sector, such as China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Defense, are noted to have low valuation levels relative to their order backlogs, suggesting potential for price appreciation [3].