经济放缓，政策效果待显现

Global Macro - The US economy faces increasing uncertainty, with a marginal weakening observed, while global manufacturing PMI remains slightly above the expansion threshold at 50.8%[6] - The impact of the US-China tariff war has been less severe than initially expected, with short-term risks appearing limited[11] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue despite government shutdown-induced data gaps[11] Domestic Macro - China's economy continues to slow, with October exports down 1.1% year-on-year and industrial production growth declining to 4.9%[12][15] - Consumer spending remains weak, with retail sales growth at 2.9% in October, reflecting a lack of internal demand[15][16] - Fixed asset investment has dropped for the fourth consecutive month, with a year-on-year decline of 11.2% in October, particularly in real estate, which fell by 23.1%[19][21] Policy Outlook - Global uncertainty has decreased, but domestic stimulus measures remain weak, focusing on the implementation of previously announced policies rather than new aggressive stimulus[2][27] - The Chinese government is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with potential for small interest rate cuts if the US continues to lower rates[2][29] Asset Performance - Technology stocks have experienced significant volatility, but the overall asset market remains upward trending, influenced by recent US-China trade agreements and the longest government shutdown in US history[34][36] - Despite recent adjustments, the long-term outlook for technology stocks remains positive due to favorable liquidity conditions and superior fundamentals compared to traditional sectors[36]