Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, projecting net profits of RMB 5.72 billion, 6.24 billion, and 6.99 billion for 2025-2027, with a 2025 PE valuation of 38x, equating to a fair value of RMB 60.83 or HKD 66.85 per share [4][16]. Core Insights - The company is actively developing non-housing businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns to enhance investment value [1]. - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was RMB 736.7 billion, stable year-on-year, with net income of RMB 23.1 billion, up 2.1% year-on-year. However, net profit decreased by 36.1% year-on-year to RMB 747 million [17]. - The existing home business showed a net income of RMB 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while the new home business net income was RMB 6.6 billion, down 14.1% year-on-year [18]. - The company has implemented a significant buyback plan, with Q3 2025 buybacks reaching USD 281 million, marking a two-year high [19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 77.78 billion, with a growth rate of 28.2%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 5.88 billion, reflecting a substantial increase of 524.5% [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to decline slightly from 24.55% in 2024 to 22.23% in 2027, indicating a trend of increasing costs relative to revenue [10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 133.15 billion in 2024 to RMB 156.70 billion in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from RMB 61.70 billion to RMB 84.51 billion over the same period [5]. Business Performance - The company’s existing home transaction volume increased by 5.8% year-on-year to RMB 505.6 billion in Q3 2025, while the new home transaction volume decreased by 13.7% year-on-year to RMB 196.3 billion [18]. - The rental services segment has shown strong growth, contributing over RMB 100 million in profit in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45.3% [17][7]. - The company’s home furnishing and rental services achieved profitability at the city level, with profit contributions to gross profit reaching a historical high [17].
贝壳-W（02423）：三季报点评：两翼业务实现盈利，科技应用提效赋能