Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The investment performance in October was still weak, with further declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate, indicating poor domestic demand. However, exports maintained strong resilience, with the advantage of trading volume for price still intact [9] - The steel industry is currently in a production - cut phase. Since steel profit per ton has not suffered significant losses, production reduction has been slow, and inventory depletion of products like hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production may still have room to decline [9] - With insufficient driving forces and intensified long - short battles, the short - term fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 and valley - electricity cost. Prudent operation is recommended [9] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Output - Last week, domestic steel spot prices were consolidating. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3160 yuan, and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan [7] - On November 13, the total output of five major steel products decreased by 22.36 tons. The factory inventory of five major products decreased by 12.61 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 13.61 tons. The apparent demand was 860.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 tons [7] - As of November 14, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive cost of rebar was 3181 yuan, with a profit of about - 21 yuan; the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 22 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - electricity cost of rebar was about 3262 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3131 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 202 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 71 yuan [7] Scrap Steel - As of November 13, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [8] - The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 50.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.1 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, an increase of 0.3% [8] - The average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 492.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.58 tons, an increase of 1.4% [8] Other Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023 [18] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 711 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the same period in 2024; the cumulative crude steel output was 818 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] - The PMI in October 2025 was 49% [22] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% year - on - year [26] - From January to October, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9% [29] 2. Main Variety Basis and Spread - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar shrank [39] 3. Supply Long - Process Supply - As of November 14, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points or 1.13%. The average daily pig iron output was 236.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons or 1.14% [42] Short - Process Supply - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. As of November 14, the iron - scrap price difference was 35.6 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan [45] Rebar Production - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 1.7191 million tons, a decrease of 73,800 tons; the short - process output was 28,090 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [57] 4. Demand Building Materials Transactions - Data on building materials transactions in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [60][62][63] Cement Mill Operating Rate - The average operating load of national cement mills was 37.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points, and the decline rate widened by 0.18 percentage points. Market demand mostly decreased, showing strong off - season characteristics [68] Real Estate Sales - Data on the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70] Rebar Inventory - This period, the original sample factory inventory of rebar was 1.6042 million tons, a decrease of 64,200 tons; the social inventory was 4.1575 million tons, a decrease of 99,500 tons; the total inventory was 5.7617 million tons, a decrease of 163,700 tons [74] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 313,660 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons. The apparent demand was 313,590 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 900 tons, the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the total inventory increased by 700 tons [77] Plate Demand - As of November 14, the cold - hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 610 yuan/ton [84] Export Situation - As of November 14, China's FOB export price was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 23.3 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.3176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 399,100 tons or 13.7% [87]
驱动不足，博弈加剧
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-17 08:27