棉系周报：基本面矛盾不大，棉价震荡为主-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have few contradictions, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply side will see a large amount of new cotton on the market, with significant production increase in the new year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino-US trade negotiations, short - term cotton prices are expected to be volatile [27][43]. Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: There are few changes in fundamentals, and the US cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 963,100 tons, accounting for 30.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 22% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton and Pima cotton is slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio is 82.6%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio is 79.5%, 2 percentage points lower year - on - year. The quarterly deliverable ratio has increased slightly month - on - month. The US cotton listing inspection is in the peak period, but the Pima cotton progress is still slow. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% week - on - week [8]. - Pakistan: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase. Textile mills purchased 471,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 98,000 tons [8]. - Brazil: The 2025/26 production forecast data released by CONAB in November shows that the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 4.077 million tons, remaining stable month - on - month. The planting area is stable at 2.0861 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 130.3 kg. The total cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4.028 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons month - on - month. The planting area is slightly reduced to 2.1371 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 125.7 kg [8]. - India: The Cotton Association of India released the first supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season. The production is predicted to be 30.5 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of 740,000 bales compared to the 2024/25 season. The consumption is expected to be 30 million bales (a decrease of 1.4 million bales from the previous season). The export is predicted to be 1.7 million bales, and the import is predicted to be 4.5 million bales, indicating that India is expected to be a net importer in the 2025/26 season. The production in all producing areas is expected to decline, with the largest reduction in Haryana and Telangana, and increases in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh [8]. - Global: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month. China's total production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. The total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: The new cotton purchase in Xinjiang is coming to an end. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%. The new cotton production cost is basically fixed, and the new cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. On November 13, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.23 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of November 6, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton nationwide was 7.082 million tons, an increase of 1.657 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [27]. - Demand Side: As of November 6, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 1.22 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 1.01 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of November 13, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills in the main areas was 30.2 days, a weekly increase of 0.33% [27]. Option Strategy - Volatility Trend Judgment: The HV on the previous day was 3.9092, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the previous day was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate within a range in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is also expected to oscillate. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [45]. Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal - External Price Difference: The chart shows the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [48][49]. - Mid - end Situation: It includes the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [52]. - Cotton Inventory: It includes the national cotton commercial inventory, the spinning mills' cotton industrial inventory, the reserve inventory, and the remaining amount of national reserves [54]. - Spot - Futures Basis: It includes the basis of cotton C32S spot - Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the average basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [57].