印度解除BIS认证出口有望回暖：能源化工周报—PX&PTA-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX oscillated at a high level this week due to the rebound of oil prices and speculation on the blending - oil logic. Rumors about the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America and blending - oil speculation increased, and the rebound of crude oil prices provided support for PX [9]. - PTA also oscillated at a high level. The recovery of cost support and the lifting of India's BIS certification contributed to this. The stable cost made the polyester raw material end run strongly, and the cancellation of the BIS certification was beneficial to the export expectations of PTA and downstream polyester products [9]. 2.2 Market Outlook Forecast - Crude oil: If there are no unexpected events, the price of crude oil is likely to continue the oscillating and weakening trend as the situations in South America and the Russia - Ukraine conflict remain the focus [10]. - PX: The overall operating rate of PX remains high, and the downstream polyester is at the transition point between peak and off - seasons. The implementation of export orders for downstream TA and polyester needs attention [10]. - PTA: The processing fee is still at a low level. Although the operating rate has declined, there will be no shortage of goods. Attention should be paid to the change in the flow direction of India's PTA imports [10]. - Polyester: The market is transitioning to the off - season. Short - term demand is generally stable, and there is positive news in the export market, but it needs time to be verified [10]. - Weaving: The domestic winter orders have basically ended, and the sales of polyester factories have increased only slightly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation after the Spring Festival [10]. - Overall: PX will oscillate in the range of 6,650 - 6,850 yuan/ton; PTA will oscillate in the range of 4,550 - 4,750 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - PX Futures: PX futures oscillated at a high level. On November 14, the closing price of the main contract was 6,806 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (0.38%) from November 7. The settlement price on November 14 was 6,848 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (1.33%) from November 7 [13][15]. - PX Spot: The market negotiation and trading volume were average, and the trends of the physical and paper spot markets diverged. From November 10 - 14, the average basis of the main contract was - 238 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6,567.20 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous period [16][18]. 3.1.2 PTA - PTA Futures: PTA futures rebounded and recovered driven by costs. On November 14, the closing price of the main contract was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (0.77%) from November 7. The settlement price on November 14 was 4,712 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (1.29%) from November 7 [20][22]. - PTA Spot: The negotiation atmosphere was generally light, mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories replenishing stocks. The average daily trading volume was 1 - 2 million tons. From November 10 - 14, the average basis of the main contract was - 88 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 579.8 US dollars/ton, up 9.8 US dollars/ton (1.72%) from the previous period. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,597.6 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.37%) from the previous period [23][25]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - Domestic PX Devices: Many domestic PX devices are operating at different loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie is operating at 70 - 80% of its capacity, and Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical's two 200 - million - ton devices are operating at 95% of their capacity [30]. - Asian PX Devices: Devices in different Asian regions have different operating conditions. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia is operating at 55 - 65% of its capacity, and Exxon Mobil in Singapore is operating at 45 - 55% of its capacity [31]. - PX Operating Rate: From November 10 - 14, the operating rate was 90.50%, up from 90.17% from November 3 - 7 [33]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - PTA Device Maintenance: Many PTA devices are under maintenance. For example, Yisheng Dahua's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device has been shut down since August 8, and Hainan Yisheng's 2 - million - ton device has been under technical transformation since August 15 [35]. - PTA Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate decreased by 1.51%. The spot supply is sufficient, and there are no unplanned PTA device maintenance [36]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions remain high, but oil flow is basically unaffected. On November 14, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 59.39 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars/ton from November 7; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 64.39 US dollars/ton, up 0.76 US dollars/ton from November 7 [41][43]. - Naphtha: After a period of stalemate, the price of naphtha dropped significantly. The average weekly CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 578.09 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 76.72 US dollars/ton [46][48]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX Processing Margin: The PXN margin widened slightly, and the short - process efficiency narrowed. The weekly average PXN was 247.40 yuan/ton, up 2.40% from the previous period. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 99.75 US dollars/ton [49][51]. - PTA Processing Fee: The cash flow is still at a low level. From November 10 - 14, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 183.45 yuan/ton, up from 149.52 yuan/ton last week [52][54]. - Inventory: With the implementation of planned maintenance, short - term inventory reduction is expected. As of November 14, the PTA social inventory was 4.044 million tons, down 28,000 tons from the previous week. The average inventory days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.97 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 6.35 days [57][59][63]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: Supported by cost and stable demand, the average weekly prices of polyester products were stable. The average market prices of polyester filament semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6,580 yuan/ton, 7,915 yuan/ton, and 6,770 yuan/ton, up 1.00%, 1.09%, and 0.97% respectively from the previous period [64][66]. - Weaving: The foreign trade market in the weaving industry continued to recover, while the domestic market was seasonally weak in some areas. As of November 13, the operating rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang and Changxing remained stable, while the operating rates of circular looms in Xiaoshao increased slightly, and the operating rates of warp - knitting machines in Haining and Changshu decreased slightly [78][80].