交易通道拥挤谨防冲高回落：有色金属周报——碳酸锂-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand, but the production of power cells has reached its peak, and downstream players are adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices. The spot market has light trading volume, with both trading volume and open interest at high levels, leading to a crowded trading channel and intense long - short competition. There is a high risk of price fluctuations in lithium carbonate, and caution should be exercised against a sharp decline after a peak [6][97] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 7.51%. The trading volume reached 4.9 million lots (+1.43 million), and the open interest reached 516,800 lots (+25,800). The basis was at a discount of 2,210 yuan/ton [8][9] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%; lithium mica production was 7,700 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5% [13] - In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate increased to 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0% [17] - In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China increased to 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [21] Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5% [31] - In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [33] Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, and the scheduled production was 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 89,894 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 18,884 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. In September, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [49] Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, and the scheduled production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [54] Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the scheduled production was 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. In November, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the scheduled production was 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [59] Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [64] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In October, the production of power batteries was 170.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.8%. In October, the installed capacity of power batteries was 84.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1% [67] - Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.45 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.4 GWh, remaining flat month - on - month [68] New Energy Vehicles - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.715 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9% [73] Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [79] Consumer Electronics - In October, the production of Chinese smartphones was 11.693 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and remaining flat year - on - year. In October, the production of Chinese micro - computers was 2.422 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [82] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore increased. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by $79/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 160 yuan/ton [87] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,481 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 2,445 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 3,236 tons, and other inventories decreased by 2,200 tons [92] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 981 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 342 tons [93] 1.7 Market Outlook - The supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi remains at a low level, while the production of lithium spodumene increases, and the import volume of lithium ore rises. The weekly production of lithium carbonate remains high, with a decrease in the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica, and an increase in the production from salt lakes and recycling. The import volume of lithium salts will recover, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile will increase, and the recycling sector will maintain stable growth. The production growth rates of new energy vehicles and cell factories have slowed down, with inventory reduction in lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week. The scheduled production of energy - storage batteries continues to grow, but the winning bid scale of energy storage has declined. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have increased. Overall, the inventory has decreased [6][97]