短期承压，关注回调后的多单参与机会：有色金属周报-锌-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, zinc prices may be under pressure due to factors such as weak consumption and the Fed's hawkish remarks dampening rate - cut expectations. Previous short positions can be held. [3] - In the medium - to - long term, the mine end remains tight, processing fees are likely to fall rather than rise, refinery operations may decline, and combined with export expectations, there is strong support below the zinc price. After a correction, long positions can be considered. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Zinc prices showed an oscillatory decline. The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.66% to 22,420 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract fell by 1.30% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 1.70% to 3,014.5 US dollars/ton. [12] 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Focus on Ingot - End Operation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 14, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports decreased by 43,000 tons to 305,700 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance range for the purchase US - dollar processing fee of imported zinc concentrate before the end of the first quarter of 2026 at 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. [30] - As of November 13, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,398 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. [37] - Both domestic and imported TC for zinc concentrate continued to decline. [38] 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Due to the oscillatory decline of zinc prices and the fall of TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 13, the production profit was - 1,338 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to around 610,000 tons. [47] - The import profit window for refined zinc remained closed. As of November 14, the import profit was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons. [51] 3.3 Environmental Restrictions Lifted, Galvanizing Operation Rate Rebounds - The galvanizing operation rate increased by 2.46 percentage points to 57.59%. The operation of enterprises affected by environmental restrictions has basically recovered. In terms of demand, the demand in the north is relatively flat, while that in the south is relatively strong, and export orders are relatively stable due to tariff negotiations. [57] - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased due to high - level oscillatory zinc prices and large - scale enterprises' demand for long - term order goods. The finished product inventory also increased. [60][61] 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Operation Rate Declines - The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.64% to 23,165 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.63% to 23,715 yuan/ton. [70] - The die - casting zinc alloy operation rate decreased by 0.65 percentage points to 50.3%. Some enterprises reduced production due to poor demand. [73] - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased as enterprises reduced spot purchases and consumed long - term orders at the beginning of the month. The finished product inventory increased as production and shipment slowed down. [76][77] 3.5 Slower Shipment, Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory Continues to Accumulate - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.92% to 21,500 yuan/ton. [83] - The operation rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 56.31%. Some northern enterprises were affected by environmental protection. In the terminal market, the tire factory's purchase of rubber - grade zinc oxide is relatively stable, but there is caution about the future tire export market. [86] - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased as some enterprises received raw material shipments. The finished product inventory slightly increased due to high - zinc - price - induced downstream wait - and - see sentiment and slower shipment. [89] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Continues to Improve 3.6.1 Inventory Status - As of November 13, the SMM zinc ingot inventory in three locations was 148,800 tons, showing a slight decline. The inventory in the bonded area was 3,800 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. [96] - As of November 14, the SHFE inventory was 100,900 tons, showing an increase. As of November 13, the LME inventory was 39,000 tons, continuing to rise. [99] 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From March to September 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance of zinc showed fluctuations, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit. For example, in September 2025, the supply - demand balance was - 0.20 million tons. [105]