Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-17 08:52Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 Key Points 1. Price Range Forecast and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% [2] - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [2] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [2] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [2] 2. Urea Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline. - Strategy: Short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, buy put options to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options to reduce capital costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Sell UR2601, buy UR2601P1850, sell UR2601C1950. - Hedging ratios: 25% for futures, 50% for put options, and relevant for call options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1800 - 1950 for futures, 15 - 20 for put options, 45 - 60 for call options [2] Procurement Management - Scenario: Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situation. - Strategy: Buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Buy UR2601, sell UR2601P1650. - Hedging ratios: 50% for futures, 75% for put options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1650 - 1750 for futures, 20 - 25 for put options [2] 3. Core Market Analysis - Core contradiction: In November, high urea daily production under policy support and profit repair pressures prices, but export policy adjustments relieve the pressure, and rising coal prices also support urea. The market is in a range between fundamentals and policy, with short - term prices expected to oscillate [3] - Bullish factors: Urea exports are confirmed. Futures are expected to show wide - range oscillations with stronger downside support due to speculative pricing [4] - Bearish factors: Domestic policy pressure requires factories to sell urea at low prices, negatively affecting spot sentiment [5]