国富豆系研究周报：USDA下调美豆出口预估，关注出口需求变化-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's November report adjusted the supply - demand balance sheets of soybeans in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina, which will have an impact on the international soybean market. The market should focus on the changes in US soybean export demand and the weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas [7][9]. - The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil in both domestic and international markets have shown upward trends, but are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather [7][12][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Soybeans - As of November 14, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1122.50 cents per bushel, up 0.47% from the previous week. The price increase was due to expectations of improved Sino - US trade relations and concerns about adverse weather in southern Brazil, but the continuous expansion of the year - on - year decline in US soybean export inspections and the slight downward adjustment of the 25/26 US soybean export forecast limited the increase [7]. - The USDA's November report slightly lowered the 25/26 US soybean yield forecast to 53.0 bushels per acre, and the estimated ending stocks were 290 million bushels, slightly lower than the market expectation of 304 million bushels [7][9]. 3.1.2 Soybean Meal - As of November 14, the CBOT soybean meal 12 contract closed at $321.7 per short ton, up 1.48% from the previous week. The price increase was limited by the expected high - level soybean crushing in the United States [12]. - The DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3092 yuan per ton, up 1.11% from the previous week. The price increase was due to rising soybean import costs and concerns about weather in Brazil, but the continuous inventory accumulation of soybean meal at oil mills and the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes limited the increase [15]. 3.1.3 Soybean Oil - As of November 14, the CBOT soybean oil 12 contract closed at 50.15 cents per pound, up 1.05% from the previous week. The price increase was related to the EPA's SRE application rulings, but the expected high - level soybean crushing in the United States suppressed the price [19]. - The DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8256 yuan per ton, up 0.88% from the previous week. The price increase was driven by rising soybean import costs and domestic rapeseed oil prices, but the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high inventory at oil mills limited the increase [23]. 3.2 Producing Area Weather 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybean Producing Area Weather - In the past week (November 7 - 14), the central part of the Brazilian soybean - producing area had normal rainfall, the southern part had higher - than - normal rainfall, and the southern part had lower - than - normal temperatures [25]. - In the next week (November 16 - 23), the rainfall in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is expected to be normal, with higher - than - normal temperatures in the central part and lower - than - normal temperatures in the southern part [27]. 3.2.2 Argentine Soybean Producing Area Weather - In the past week (November 7 - 14), the rainfall and temperature in the Argentine soybean - producing area were normal [31]. - In the next week (November 16 - 23), the rainfall in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to be normal, with lower - than - normal temperatures [34]. 3.3 International Supply - Demand 3.3.1 US Soybeans - The USDA's November report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 US soybean supply - demand balance sheets, including changes in sown area, yield, export, and ending stocks [44]. - As of November 9, the average estimated US soybean harvest rate was 96%, similar to the same period last year [46]. - As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume met expectations, but the year - on - year decline in cumulative exports continued to expand. As of September 25, the year - on - year decline in cumulative 25/26 US soybean export sales also continued to expand [48]. - As of November 14, the US D4 RINs price was 101.25 cents, up 0.75 cents from November 7 [52]. - On November 7, the US EPA made rulings on 16 SRE applications from 8 small refineries [53]. 3.3.2 Brazilian Soybeans - The USDA's November report raised the 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast to 171.5 million tons, and also adjusted export and crushing forecasts, with the ending stocks forecast increased to 36.81 million tons. For 25/26, the crushing and export forecasts were raised, and the ending stocks forecast was lowered to 36.36 million tons [55][58]. - As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, lower than the same period last year. The sowing progress in different regions varied [60]. - Anec raised the November Brazilian soybean export forecast to 4.26 million tons. As of November 1, 2025, the cumulative Brazilian soybean exports were 101.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.83% [65]. - As of November 14, the Brazilian soybean premium quotes declined, and the Brazilian soybean crushing profit increased to $40.97 per ton [67]. 3.3.3 Argentine Soybeans - The USDA's November report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 Argentine soybean supply - demand balance sheets, including changes in production, import, export, and ending stocks [70]. - As of November 13, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 15%, lower than the same period last year [72]. - As of November 5, the Argentine farmers' 24/25 soybean export sales increased week - on - week. As of the 45th week of 2025, the Argentine farmers' 2025 soybean sales progress was expected to be 81.1% [74][76]. - As of November 14, the Argentine soybean crushing profit decreased to - $6.34 per ton [79]. 3.4 Domestic Supply - Demand 3.4.1 Soybean Oil Supply - Demand - According to McDonald Pelz, the Chinese import soybean procurement progress data for the week of November 11, 2025, was released [81]. - As of November 7, the national port soybean inventory and oil mill soybean inventory increased week - on - week [83]. - In the 45th week (November 1 - 7), the domestic imported soybean arrival volume and oil mill soybean crushing volume and operating rate increased [86]. - As of November 14, the weekly soybean oil trading volume increased [88]. - In the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the oil mill soybean oil production increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. As of November 7, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory decreased [91][94]. 3.4.2 Soybean Meal Supply - Demand - As of November 14, the oil mill soybean meal production increased, and the apparent consumption decreased [96]. - As of November 7, the oil mill soybean meal inventory decreased, and the feed mill physical inventory days slightly decreased [99]. - As of November 14, the soybean meal trading volume increased significantly, and the pick - up volume also increased [102]. - As of November 14, the losses of self - breeding and self - raising pig farming and purchased - piglet farming deepened. As of November 5, the national pig ex - factory price and pig - grain ratio increased [104][106]. - As of November 14, the DCE soybean meal warehouse receipt registration quantity was 41,288 lots [108]. 3.5 Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 3.5.1 Basis, Calendar Spread, and Cross - Commodity Spread Situations - The report presents the basis and calendar spread data of soybean oil and soybean meal in different regions, as well as the cross - commodity spread data between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the price ratio data of soybean oil/soybean meal and corn/soybean meal [111][118][124]. 3.5.2 FOB Quotes - The report shows the FOB quotes and spreads of soybean oil, US soybean meal, Argentine soybean meal, and Brazilian soybean meal [128][130][133]. 3.5.3 CFTC Positioning - The report presents the net long positions of managed funds in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal [134][135].