美联储内部“鹰派”表态升温，本周关注9月非农数据海外宏观周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.16）-20251117

Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's internal "hawkish" stance is intensifying, with a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts as inflation remains above target levels[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, currently at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 55.6%[9] - The U.S. government shutdown lasting over 43 days has created a data void, impacting the Fed's assessment of economic conditions[9] Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. ADP private sector employment decreased by 45,000 jobs in October, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market[14] - The UK’s Q3 GDP grew by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in September[20] - Japan's PPI growth slowed to 2.66% year-on-year in October, indicating a potential easing in inflationary pressures[21] Group 3: Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.14% amid market adjustments following the end of the government shutdown[30] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting rising expectations for interest rate hikes[30] - The S&P 500 index saw a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 18.59%[6]