棕榈油期货：低位震荡，区间交易

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Last week, the average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil ranged between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. Despite the import cost rising and then falling during the week, the price linkage of competing oils like soybean oil and concerns about rapeseed oil supply provided bottom - line support for the sector, preventing a unilateral decline [1]. - Globally, the abundant supply is the core negative factor. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach a historic high, exceeding 20 million tons for the first time, and Indonesia's production from January to September increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are maintained in the range of 1.2 - 1.25 million tons. Although the import volume is increasing, downstream提货 is stable, and the short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - The demand shows "structural improvement". The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is continuously repairing, and the high price of rapeseed oil due to supply shortage concerns boosts the sentiment of the entire oil sector, providing bottom - line support for palm oil. However, negative factors are also prominent, such as India's imports dropping to a five - year low and the weakening of crude oil prices suppressing the demand for palm oil in the biodiesel field, with no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - In the short term, palm oil futures will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil last week was in the range of 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The price linkage of competing oils and concerns about rapeseed oil supply supported the market, preventing a one - sided decline [1]. - Globally, supply is abundant. Malaysia's production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and Indonesia's January - September production increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are stable, and short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - Demand has "structural improvement" but also faces negative factors. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is repairing, and rapeseed oil prices boost the sector. However, India's low imports and weak crude oil prices suppress demand, and there is no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - Short - term palm oil futures will fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is advised [1]. Factors to Watch - November palm oil production and export data in Malaysia, the repair of the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and India's import policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - date Quotation and Import Profit Calculation - For the December 24 - degree palm oil ship - date in South China, the CNF is 1,030, the forward exchange rate is 7.0807, the import cost is 8,745 yuan/ton, the disk price is 8,364 yuan/ton, and the profit against the disk is - 111 yuan/ton [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The disk price is the price of the main palm oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange from 11:00 - 11:30. The import cost does not include processing fees and is the gross profit against the disk. The profit against the disk = disk price - import cost. The forward exchange rate is the real - time exchange rate of foreign exchange futures on the Singapore Exchange. The import cost = import CIF price * exchange rate * tariff * VAT + port charges [4]