Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-17 09:43Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Price Range Forecast (Monthly) - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Hedging - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - Procurement Management - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - Core Logic - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - Strategy Recommendations - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - 利多解读 - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - 利空解读 - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - Spot Prices - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]