造纸产业风险管理日报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the pulp and offset paper futures prices are consolidating with a slight downward trend, which is in line with previous expectations. Pulp spot prices are relatively stable after a general decline last Friday. Affected by negative macro - sentiment and a 10.2 - ton increase in port inventory, the futures prices are still slightly down, but supported by the shutdown of some pulp mills. Offset paper spot prices are also stable and in a range - bound state. In the short term, both pulp and offset paper are expected to maintain a volatile trend with a slightly lower price center [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.74%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.10% and a historical percentile of 48.83% [2]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) worried about price drops, strategies include short - selling pulp/offset paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedge ratio in the ranges of 5500 - 5600 and 4350 - 4400 respectively, and selling call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) at 25% hedge ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. - Procurement Management: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, strategies include buying pulp/offset paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedge ratio in the ranges of 5150 - 5250 and 4100 - 4150 respectively, and selling put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) at 25% hedge ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Pulp: In the futures market, short - sell on rallies in the short - term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread. In the options market, stay on the sidelines for now [5]. - Offset Paper: In the futures market, short - sell on rallies in the short - term. In the options market, stay on the sidelines for now [6]. Market Factors - Positive Factors: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [7]. - Negative Factors: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and pulp spot prices have generally declined [7][8]. Price and Spread Data - Futures Prices and Spreads: On November 17, 2025, SP11 closed at 4890 with a daily decline of 0.79% and a weekly increase of 0.57%. OP01 closed at 4260 with a daily decline of 0.85% and a weekly decline of 1.25%. There are also various inter - contract spreads provided [13]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On November 17, 2025, the pulp spot price in Shandong was 5483, in South China was 5870, and in the Yangtze River Delta was 5621. On November 14, 2025, the double - offset paper spot price in Shandong was 4750, in Guangdong was 4850, and in Jiangsu was 4750. Regional price differences are also provided [14]. Basis Data - Pulp Basis: The daily changes in pulp basis for different regions and contracts are provided, such as the basis of Shandong Yinxing - SP11 was 660 on November 12, 2025, with a daily decline of 2 and a weekly increase of 46 [8]. - Offset Paper Basis: The daily changes in offset paper basis for different regions and contracts are provided, such as the basis of Shandong Chenming - OP01 was 490 on November 17, 2025, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 54 [8].