Report Overview - The report is the Steel & Iron Ore Daily Report on November 17, 2025, covering industry dynamics, spot and futures markets, relevant charts, and future market judgments [4]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price strengthened with a daily increase of 1.64%. Supply has shrunk to a low level, but demand has also weakened. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price fluctuated upwards with a daily increase of 1.57%. Both supply and demand have weakened, the industrial contradiction has been alleviated limitedly, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. The subsequent trend will continue the low - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - Iron ore: The main contract price was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%. Although the demand has improved, its sustainability is questionable, and the supply remains high. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force is doubtful. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic of black varieties. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Fiscal revenue and expenditure: From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 18.649 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The national government - funded budget revenue was 3.4473 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The state - owned land use right transfer income was 2.4982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [7]. - Central bank operation: The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on the 17th, with a term of 6 months. In November, the net investment will be 500 billion yuan [8]. - Steel production: In October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 63.6916 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%, with a daily output of 2.0546 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. From January to October, the cumulative production of crude steel was 682 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9]. 2. Spot Market - Steel products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,240 yuan, and 3,266 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,324 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,970 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,060 yuan [10]. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803 yuan. The Australian and Brazilian sea freight rates were 10.24 yuan and 23.06 yuan respectively. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.60 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 103.60 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,097 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.64%. The trading volume was 1,329,238 lots, an increase of 560,151 lots, and the open interest was 1,729,748 lots, a decrease of 107,385 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,302 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The trading volume was 564,044 lots, an increase of 237,702 lots, and the open interest was 1,263,520 lots, a decrease of 23,505 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 788.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.81%. The trading volume was 351,268 lots, an increase of 84,842 lots, and the open interest was 481,401 lots, an increase of 1,021 lots [14]. 4. Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and the seasonal inventory of 45 ports from 2021 - 2025 [21][22][25]. - Steel mill production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mill ratio of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][34][35]. 5. Future Market Judgments - Rebar: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 8.54 tons, and inventory is high. Demand is also weak, and it is expected to continue to be volatile. Pay attention to demand performance [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output decreased by 4.50 tons, and inventory is high. Demand is weakening. It is expected to continue the low - level volatile trend. Pay attention to steel mill production [38]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has not improved. Inventory is increasing. Although demand has improved, its sustainability is questionable, and supply remains high. It is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to steel mill production [39].
钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪回暖，钢矿偏强运行-20251117
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-17 09:42