Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-17 09:59Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the corn market, the USDA's November supply - demand report shows a slightly bearish outlook for US corn, but in the domestic market, cold weather in Northeast and North China has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, reduced available grain sources, and stronger corporate purchase prices. Corn futures prices have strengthened recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - In the starch market, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has recovered, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. Starch futures have oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2182 yuan/ton, and the corn starch futures closing price (active contract) of another data is 2489 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 61 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 2 yuan, down 3 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 934047 lots, down 13255 lots, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 227112 lots, down 10823 lots [2]. Outer - disc Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 430.25 cents/bushel, and CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts. CBOT corn non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2275.29 yuan/ton, the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 427.11 million hectares, the predicted yield is 131 million tons; in Brazil, the predicted sown area is 36.44 million hectares, the predicted yield is 22.6 million tons; in Argentina, the predicted sown area is 53 million hectares, the predicted yield is 7.5 million tons; in China, the predicted sown area is 295 million hectares, the predicted yield is 44.3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 320,000 tons, in northern ports is 1240,000 tons, down 0.5 tons from the previous week. The monthly import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons, the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei is 104 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jilin is 22 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48%, up 0.71% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.57%, down 0.76%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.7%, down 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 5.92%, down 1.64%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.92%, down 1.64% [2]. Industry News - The USDA's November supply - demand report shows that the expected US corn yield in the 2025/26 season is adjusted down to 1.6752 billion bushels, the export target is increased by 100 million bushels to 3.075 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is increased [2]. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from Mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]