瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Last week, the national average operating rate of caustic soda decreased slightly, downstream operating rates changed little, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories continued to decline with a moderately high inventory pressure. The strong price of thermal coal drove up costs, while the prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine were weak, leading to a decline in the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong last week. This week, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. There is pressure on alumina enterprises to reduce production, but there are no signs of large - scale production cuts yet. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. The price of liquid chlorine is strong, and the chlor - alkali plant maintains high operation and high profit. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong fell under pressure. The current main basis is still high, reflecting the market's weak supply - demand expectation for the future, waiting for verification. Short - term SH2601 is expected to fluctuate, and technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 2270 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2291 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May were 2291 yuan/ton and 2438 yuan/ton respectively, down 36 yuan and 44 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in futures was - 23970 lots, down 8850 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 391745 lots, an increase of 34254 lots, and the position was 150653 lots, an increase of 23961 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions was 780 yuan/ton and 910 yuan/ton respectively, with Shandong down 10 yuan and Jiangsu unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2437.5 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan, and the basis was 147 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 656 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu was 50.5 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda in China decreased by 0.7% month - on - month to 84.1%. From November 8th to 14th, the national alumina operating rate increased by 0.12% month - on - month to 85.37%. From November 7th to 13th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.1% month - on - month to 89.50%, and the dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.52% month - on - month to 66.55%. As of November 13th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 40.22 tons, down 3.04% month - on - month. From November 7th to 13th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 425 yuan/ton, down month - on - month [2]