第一上海新力量NewForce总第494期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gold International (2099) with a target price of HKD 185.63, representing a 26% upside from the current price of HKD 147.30 [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Jia Ma mine's continuous production ramp-up is driving record profits for the company, with Q3 revenue reaching USD 345 million, a 36% year-on-year increase, and net profit soaring 410% to USD 142 million [6][9]. - The Jia Ma mine's copper production reached 19,000 tons in Q3, marking a 10.9% year-on-year increase, while gold production saw a temporary decline due to operational adjustments [7][8]. - The report projects that the Jia Ma mine will produce between 2.15 to 2.3 tons of gold and 63,000 to 67,000 tons of copper in 2025, with significant capacity expansions expected by 2027 [7][9]. Company Research - China Gold International's Q3 performance showcases strong profitability, driven by increased copper sales and higher metal prices, despite a slight decline in gold production [6][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from high gold prices, which provide a cushion against production declines, with projected gold production from the Changshanhao mine between 2.4 to 2.6 tons in 2025 [8][9]. - The report forecasts net profits for the company to reach USD 410 million in 2025, USD 531 million in 2026, and USD 716 million in 2027, reflecting substantial growth potential [9][11]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the broader context of the precious and industrial metals market, emphasizing the impact of global inflation and geopolitical uncertainties on metal prices, which are expected to remain high [9]. - The ongoing demand for copper and gold, driven by industrial applications and investment in precious metals, positions the company favorably within the industry [9].