国投期货综合晨报-20251117

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1] Energy Crude Oil - International oil prices fluctuated last week, with the Brent 01 contract rising 0.93%. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported oil prices, but the Russian Black Sea port resumed loading on Sunday. Supply-demand pressure in the crude oil market is expected to increase in Q4 and Q1 next year, and there is still a downside risk for oil prices in the medium term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Russia's sanctions on two types of oil exports after November 21 and the release of Venezuelan risks [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by a marginal decline in Russian exports due to sanctions and facility attacks in the short term, but its exports are expected to increase further as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends, and the medium-term supply pattern may become more relaxed. Low-sulfur fuel oil has seen some improvement in its fundamentals compared to the previous period, as unstable overseas refinery operations have relieved some supply pressure, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking provides support from the conversion logic, combined with the peak demand season for marine fuel in Q4 and the easing of Sino-US trade relations [20] LPG - Import resources are in short supply. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for the combustion end. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased. LPG is expected to show a slightly stronger and fluctuating trend under the tightening of supply and demand [22] Urea - The new plant of Xinjiang Zhongneng has successfully produced products, and the daily output of urea continues to increase. The start of production of industrial compound fertilizers has increased recently, and the reserve demand has followed up at low prices, resulting in a reduction in inventory for production enterprises. The impact of export sentiment is greater than the actual situation, and the short-term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with the price center possibly moving slightly upward [23] Methanol - The volume of imported methanol arriving at ports continues to be high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. Overseas plants are operating at a high level, and there is an abundant supply of in-transit goods. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and there are expectations of shutdown and maintenance for several coastal MTO plants. Methanol may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer mark, and the market is likely to rebound in response to positive news. Monitor the shutdown time of overseas plants and changes in port inventories [24] Pure Benzene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the market is mainly trading on the tight supply of US pure benzene and overseas blending oil demand. The outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene has increased. The absolute price of pure benzene is low, and the profitability is poor, but the inventory pressure is not significant, and the price has elasticity. The price rebounded last week. However, the profitability of downstream industries is generally weak, and overseas demand may be volatile, so caution is needed when evaluating the height of the rebound [25] Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The overall supply in the propylene market is abundant. Production enterprises have a certain intention to stabilize the market, but the overall trading volume is average, and a small number of offers have seen narrow discounts. Downstream factories are mainly waiting and watching based on rigid demand, and their purchasing mentality is cautious. However, the gradual resumption of previously shut-down butanol and octanol plants provides some support for propylene demand. In the case of polyethylene, there are no new shutdowns in domestic petrochemical plants, and most are operating normally, resulting in a stable supply of domestic products. The orders of packaging film factories have decreased, and the demand is average, with a weakened willingness to replenish stocks. The operation rate of greenhouse film factories has declined, and new orders are limited, leading to a gradual weakening of demand and a reduction in raw material purchases. For polypropylene, the previously shut-down plants have gradually restarted, increasing the supply pressure slightly. Downstream industries continue to purchase based on rigid demand, and the market trading is average, with a supply-demand imbalance still existing. Although the cost side provides stronger support, the market price is still difficult to achieve continuous growth [27] PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows a fluctuating trend The cancellation of India's BIS certification slightly exceeded market expectations, but the overall impact is not significant. Attention should be paid to whether India's anti-dumping policy will be implemented. The price of calcium carbide is temporarily stable, and the integrated gross profit of Shandong caustic soda and PVC is slightly in the red, providing some cost support. Upstream plants are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in industry inventories. Domestic demand is insufficient, and exports are affected by India's anti-dumping tax, leading to a wait-and-see attitude in the market. With high supply and weak demand, PVC is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Caustic soda also shows a fluctuating trend. The upstream cost has increased, and the price of caustic soda has weakened, resulting in a decline in the integrated profit of chlor-alkali. Inventories have decreased month-on-month but still face significant year-on-year pressure. The profitability of alumina has been compressed, and some enterprises are in the red, with a possibility of production cuts in the future. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to replenish stocks. With high supply and insufficient demand, caustic soda is operating weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in profitability in the future [28] PX & PTA - Affected by the tight supply of overseas aromatics, the price of PX has rebounded, driving up the price of PTA. The demand for terminal cold-proof fabrics is good, but the overall market atmosphere has cooled down. The profitability of PTA is poor, and there are still expectations of industry-wide production cuts. Recently, some plants have reduced their operating loads. The operating rate of PX plants is high, and there are also plans for plant maintenance in the future. The strong gasoline crack spread overseas and the tight supply of US aromatics have once again boosted the Asian aromatics market. However, considering the expected weakening of chemical demand and the uncertainty of the sustainability of overseas demand, a cautious bullish attitude is recommended [29] Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly month-on-month, with integrated plants increasing their operating rates and syngas-based plants reducing theirs. The port inventory increased significantly on Monday according to Longzhong data. The start-up of new production capacity and the restart of old plants have increased the supply pressure significantly. In the short term, the increase in supply has been slightly alleviated by the increase in shutdowns of syngas-based plants. In the medium term, demand is expected to weaken, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The strategy of reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. Continue to monitor the dynamics of plants after the decline in profitability of syngas-based plants [30] Short Fiber & Bottle Chip - There is no pressure from new production capacity for short fiber, and plants are operating at a high load. The spot market situation is good, but there are expectations of weakening demand, which may put pressure on processing margins. The absolute price fluctuates with the raw material price. As the weather gets colder, the demand for bottle chips has weakened, putting pressure on processing margins. The operating rate of plants has increased slightly, and overcapacity is a long-term pressure. The price is mainly driven by costs [31] Glass - The price of glass decreased with an increase in positions. The high inventory in the middle stream is still having a negative impact, and the spot price is showing a downward trend, with inventory accumulating this week. The increase in coal prices has raised costs and reduced profits. Four production lines in Shahe have stopped production, reducing the daily melting capacity. Processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still insufficient year-on-year. The high inventory in the middle stream persists, and the weak market reality continues. The futures price has limited upward momentum, and there is significant competition between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [32] 20 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - The price of international crude oil futures has increased, while the price of raw materials in the Thai market has remained stable with a slight decline. Currently, the global supply of natural rubber is at a high level, but the production in Yunnan, China, has entered a declining period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to increase slowly, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to increase significantly. Last week, the operating rate of domestic all-steel radial tire plants decreased slightly, while that of semi-steel radial tire plants increased slightly. The inventory of finished products of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 44.95 million tons last week, and according to Zhuochuang data, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to increase to 1.59 million tons, while the inventory of Chinese butadiene at ports continued to decline to 2.9 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly weakening, the supply of natural rubber is decreasing, the supply of synthetic rubber is increasing, rubber inventories are increasing, and cost support is stable. Market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to expect a rebound for RU and BR after an oversold situation, adopt a wait-and-see approach for NR, and pay attention to cross-variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [33] Soda Ash - Soda ash shows a fluctuating trend. The market for light soda ash is performing well, and industry inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range. Costs have increased, and both ammonia-soda and combined-soda plants are slightly in the red. Some soda ash plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in a month-on-month decline in production. The ignition and cold repair of photovoltaic glass coexist, and the overall production capacity has not changed significantly. Four production lines of float glass have recently stopped production. Attention should be paid to the cost-driven factor. If costs decrease, the price may fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, under the high-pressure supply pattern, there will still be a situation of oversupply [34] Metals Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. With the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market is waiting for economic data to further assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. The hawkish statements of Fed officials have suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are forming a high-level consolidation platform, patiently waiting for new drivers and directional guidance from the technical side [3] Copper - The copper price first declined and then rebounded during the night session on Friday. Attention should be paid to the performance of short-term moving averages and the movement of funds. Last week, the domestic and international copper prices encountered resistance at $88,000 and $110,000 respectively. The main trading theme in the market is not clear. The market is waiting for US economic indicators and paying attention to the strength of domestic demand. The price of domestic spot copper is reported at 87,210 yuan, with a premium of 50 yuan in Shanghai and flat in Guangdong. Short-term high-level short positions can be traded with a stop-loss at 88,000 yuan. The copper price is currently in a consolidation phase [4] Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined on Friday. Although there are potential stories in the long-term supply and demand of the aluminum market, the short-term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. After the position in Shanghai aluminum increased to 800,000 lots, it decreased for two consecutive days. The overall linkage among non-ferrous metals is strong, and the slightly stronger and fluctuating trend has not been broken. Attention should be paid to the movement of funds [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the adjustment of the tax rate policy is still unclear. Both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a high level. Cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with the aluminum price, and there is no obvious driving force for the price difference [6] Alumina - The operating production capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts continue to increase. The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change. There is a certain degree of reluctance to sell in the spot market, and the decline of the index has slowed down and is gradually approaching the cash loss in Shanxi and Henan. However, the price of ore has become more flexible, and there is a small amount of room for cost reduction. Before large-scale production cuts are implemented, alumina is expected to operate weakly with limited room for rebound [7] Zinc - Fed officials have made hawkish statements, leading to a widespread decline in the overseas equity market. Long positions in the non-ferrous metals sector have accelerated their exit. The price of Shanghai zinc has retraced to the 5-day moving average, erasing all the gains since November and failing to effectively break through the upper limit of the bottom consolidation range. The LME zinc inventory has continued to increase slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 159,600 tons. The divergence in inventory trends between the domestic and international markets has been temporarily corrected, and there is limited room for further expansion of the price difference between the domestic and international markets. The TC of both domestic and overseas mines has decreased simultaneously, and the zinc price has declined significantly, putting pressure on the profits of domestic smelters. Production cuts by some smelters have gradually been implemented. The support level for the rebound of Shanghai zinc is currently seen at the 20-day moving average [8] Lead - The price of lead is relatively high, and downstream procurement has significantly weakened. Smelters are actively resuming production, leading to a weakening of the fundamentals. Long funds have taken profits at high prices, and the net outflow of funds from the weighted Shanghai lead contract exceeded 100 million yuan during the day. Shanghai lead felt significant pressure near the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. The upcoming launch of energy storage orders and new national standard electric vehicles, along with the reduction in the tax exemption for new energy vehicles next year, have temporarily improved the consumption expectation of lead. However, as the weather gets colder, the orders of some battery enterprises have weakened, and the operating rate has declined, providing insufficient support for the high lead price. The supply of scrap batteries and lead concentrates remains tight. Considering the cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Tin - The price fluctuation of Shanghai tin increased during the night session on Friday. After the main contract rebounded from the MA10 moving average and 288,000 yuan, it recovered the decline and fluctuated above 290,000 yuan. The social inventory of tin according to Steel Union increased by 646 tons to 7,934 tons last week, and the SMM social inventory increased by 410 tons to 7,443 tons. The tin market still needs to pay attention to changes in domestic funds. The uncertainty of the resumption rhythm of Dibang and the efficiency of the capacity rectification of Indonesia's天马 has led the market to focus on the tight supply situation last week. Wait for today's social inventory data. Long-term high-level short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore rebounded slightly last week. On the supply side, the global shipment volume is slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine has officially started production, but the short-term production capacity that can be released is limited. The volume of iron ore arriving at domestic ports is at a high level for the same period, and the port inventory continues to show an increasing trend. There are some structural changes in the inventory of Australian iron ore. On the demand side, the demand for steel in the off-season has declined, and the loss situation of steel mills has worsened. Although the iron ore production rebounded last week, there is still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, many important events have been implemented and priced in, and the short-term impact on the futures price is weakening. The market has started to price in the reality of a marginal loosening of the iron ore supply-demand situation. It is expected that the price of iron ore will fluctuate [14] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. The fourth round of price increases for coking coal was fully implemented this week. The profitability of coking enterprises is still average, and the daily production has decreased slightly. The coke inventory has decreased slightly. Currently, downstream enterprises are purchasing on a small scale based on demand, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. The purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices showed a mixed trend. The terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory at the production end increased slightly. Safety inspections have been carried out in major coal-producing regions. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the futures price of coking coal is at a discount to the Mongolian coal price. The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal-producing regions. The price is expected to fluctuate [1