山金期货螺纹热卷周报：低估值叠加驱动向下，期价仍承压-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are in a state of low valuation with downward drivers, still facing significant pressure, but the downside space may be quite limited, and it is difficult for unilateral speculation. From a technical perspective, the futures prices are still in a medium-term downward trend, and after short-term narrow-range fluctuations, they are facing a direction choice. As long as the downward trend in the technical aspect is not completely changed, they should be treated as low-level fluctuations [8][74]. - The long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held, but it may need to endure a long period of low-level fluctuations [8][74]. - For unilateral speculation, it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. After the bottom is constructed on the technical side, market expectations improve, and the prices fully reflect the weak demand reality, a good medium-term long opportunity will emerge [7][73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Valuation: Rebar and hot-rolled coils are currently in an obviously undervalued state, and the valuation of the 01 contract of rebar is relatively lower [8][44][74]. - Driver: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The downward pressure on prices is mainly caused by two aspects. Firstly, there is high inventory, especially the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is greater. Secondly, the decline in consumption, the losses of steel mills, and the relatively longer time that terminal demand stays at a low level may trigger the industry to cut production beyond the seasonal trend, causing a negative feedback loop in iron ore and coke [8][72][74]. - Strategy Suggestion: Unilateral speculation should maintain a wait-and-see attitude; the long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held [7][8][73][74]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Market Review - Spot Prices: In the recent week, rebar spot prices rebounded slightly, while hot-rolled coil spot prices showed mixed trends. Recently, rebar spot prices were significantly stronger than hot-rolled coil spot prices [13]. - Basis: The basis of rebar has narrowed, mainly because the futures price increased more than the spot price. The basis of the near-month contract is larger, indicating that the near-month valuation is lower without considering the capital cost. The basis of hot-rolled coils continued to narrow, and the far-month contract has turned to premium [15][18][20]. - Spread: The spread between the near and far months of rebar remained at a relatively low level, and there was no good opportunity to go long on the near-far month spread for now. The near-far month spread of hot-rolled coils basically fluctuated around zero, with no good trading opportunities. The spot coil-rebar spread was low, while the futures coil-rebar spread was in the normal range [23][25][28]. - Ratio: The rebar-iron ore ratio was generally at a low level and may rise in the future, presenting a good long opportunity. The rebar-coke ratio has dropped significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline [31][44]. - Profit: Due to the回调 of coking coal, coke, and iron ore prices, the profit of steel mills has improved, but they are still in a loss state overall. Short-process steel mills are in a loss state whether using off-peak electricity or normal electricity [33][35]. 3.3 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: With the arrival of the consumption off-season, steel production generally continued the seasonal downward trend. Although the molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected that this rebound will not last long, and the molten iron production of steel mills is likely to continue to decline. Independent electric arc furnace production remained at a relatively high level [47][51][72]. - Demand: Terminal demand has entered the consumption off-season and is in a period when winter storage has not yet started. Demand is expected to put significant pressure on prices. Due to the influence of the leap month this year, the Spring Festival is coming later, meaning that winter storage will come later than before, and terminal demand will stay at a low level for a relatively longer time [57][72]. - Inventory: Currently, social inventory continues to decline, but the total inventory of the five major varieties is at a high level in the same period in recent years. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is near the record high and significantly higher than the previous same-period levels. The total inventory of steel billets in Tangshan is still increasing, and the inventory of steel billets in major warehouses and ports is also at a high level in the same period in history [62][66][69]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Research and Judgment - Market Outlook: In the short term, rebar and hot-rolled coils are in a state of weak supply and demand with large inventory pressure. Before the arrival of winter storage, terminal demand will continue to decline seasonally, and molten iron and steel production will also gradually decline. Iron ore and coke prices may enter a negative feedback loop. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, winter storage will come relatively later, and the market may need to endure a longer period of low demand [72][74]. - Investment Opportunity: Unilateral speculation should maintain a wait-and-see attitude; the long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held [7][8][73][74].