螺纹热卷日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector strengthened overall today. Steel spot transactions were generally fair, mainly driven by low - price speculation and futures - cash transactions. - Last week's data showed that blast furnaces continued to cut production, and overall steel output declined, with a greater reduction in rebar production than in plate production. Total steel inventories continued to decrease, but hot - rolled coils slightly increased in stock. The apparent demand for all steel products except cold - rolled coils declined, and the supply - demand structure suppressed steel prices. - Recently, the rapid reduction in hot metal production squeezed raw materials, causing the center of steel prices to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds slowed down, downstream payment collection was difficult, and the number of projects decreased year - on - year, creating upward pressure. - However, the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has officially started, making it difficult for coking coal supply to increase significantly, which provides cost support for steel. - In the short term, steel prices will maintain a range - bound fluctuation, and more factors are needed to break the situation. Hot - rolled coils generally perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3190 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3220 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coils at 3290 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coils at 3210 yuan (+20). [4] Market Research and Judgment Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound and slightly upward trend. [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] Important Information - In September 2025, China's engineering machinery import and export trade volume reached 5.505 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.1%. Among them, the import volume was 234 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 18.5%, and the export volume was 5.271 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.6%. - In October 2025, China produced 72 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily output of 2.3226 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.2%; 65.55 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, with a daily output of 2.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; and 118.64 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 3.8271 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%. From January to October, the cumulative production of crude steel was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.6904 million tons; pig iron was 711 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.34 million tons; and steel was 1.218 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0052 million tons. [9][10] Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts related to steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits of different steel products and contracts, such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, from 2021 to 2025. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [11][13][14]