Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-17 10:34Report Summary of Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily on November 17, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side continues to exert pressure, but the domestic demand shows marginal improvement. The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price: 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price: 19,740 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 84,319 lots, up 7,104 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: 102 lots, up 313 lots [2]. - Cotton main - contract open interest: 571,342 lots, up 14,902 lots; cotton yarn main - contract open interest: 22,211 lots, down 1,293 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 4,396 lots, down 5 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 28 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn): 20,540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,913 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff): 13,920 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn arrival price): 21,078 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed 32 - count yarn arrival price): 22,424 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,739 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - Cotton import volume: 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 886 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; grey fabric inventory days: 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2]. - Cloth output: 2.8 billion meters, up 0.1 billion meters; yarn output: 2.074 million tons, up 46,000 tons [2]. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 124,532,470,000 US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products: 119,665,160,000 US dollars, down 426,685.77 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on cotton: 15.18%, up 4.51%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on cotton: 15.17%, up 4.51% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.71%, up 0.14%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.24%, down 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The 2025/26 US cotton November supply - demand outlook shows that compared with September, production, exports, and ending inventory have increased, while consumption and imports remain unchanged. US production forecast is nearly 900,000 bales higher, reaching 14.1 million bales, with the national average yield forecast up nearly 7%. Exports are forecast to increase by 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales, and ending inventory increases by nearly 20% to 4.3 million bales, with a stock - to - use ratio of 30.9% [2]. 3.8 Market Analysis - Domestic market: On the supply side, new cotton acquisition and processing progress is fast, and acquisition is nearly finished. The cotton acquisition price has risen, providing cost support. However, with the issuance of import quotas and faster shipment of high - grade new Brazilian cotton, the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. The port inventory has reached a four - month high, with more arrivals and limited shipments. On the demand side, China's textile and apparel exports in October showed a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, with clothing exports falling more significantly than textiles. But domestic retail demand shows marginal improvement, and later orders should be monitored [2].