瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver continued to decline under pressure during the session, but the downward momentum weakened, and the London gold and silver prices formed strong support at the integer level [3]. - The market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened marginally after the US - Switzerland tariff agreement, and profit - taking by long - positions intensified the pressure on the high - level correction of gold prices. FOMC officials' hawkish signals reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut to below 50%, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals [3]. - In the short term, if the US stock market continues to decline, liquidity risks may increase the correction pressure on precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected and the rise in US Treasury yields pose potential negatives to gold prices. - In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the US dollar make gold attractive. Central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center. The recommended trading ranges are 900 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai gold 2512 contract and 11500 - 12300 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver 2512 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Closing Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 929.46 yuan/gram, down 23.74 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 11933 yuan/kg, down 418 yuan [3]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 101723 lots, down 11874 lots; the Shanghai silver main contract was 311515 lots, up 101189 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 108348 lots, down 7750 lots; the Shanghai silver was 105453 lots, down 16646 lots [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 90426 kg (unchanged); the silver was 569355 kg, down 7539 kg [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - Spot Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 931.45 yuan/gram, down 27.35 yuan; the silver spot price was 11977 yuan/kg, down 441 yuan [3]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1.99 yuan/gram, down 3.61 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 44 yuan/kg, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings were 1044 tons, down 4.93 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15218.42 tons, up 45.14 tons [3]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver was 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the global annual demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4. Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.6%, down 2.74%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.22%, up 0.1% [3]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 26.76%, up 2%. 3.5. Industry News - The US and Switzerland have "basically" reached a trade agreement. US tariffs on Swiss goods will drop from 39% to 15%, and Switzerland will invest $200 billion in the US [3]. - The US will release the Q3 GDP revised value on November 26, along with October personal income, expenditure, and PCE index at 10:00 on the same day. There are also scheduled releases of September non - farm payroll and real wage data, but the release of October CPI data is uncertain [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 16.7% [3].