瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc ore imports in China have increased due to the arrival of long - term agreement ores and raw material reserves for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have been cut, and sulfuric acid prices have dropped, significantly squeezing smelters' profits, with some incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc output is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped sharply, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect was weak, the real - estate sector was a drag, while policies in the automotive and home - appliance sectors brought some bright spots. The recovery of downstream demand was insufficient, with the market mainly making on - demand purchases at low prices. Domestic inventories decreased slightly, and LME zinc de - stocking slowed down. Technically, with stable positions and price adjustments, there was more divergence between bulls and bears. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate and adjust, with attention on the range of 2.22 - 2.26 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,465 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 3,014.5 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 217,728 lots, down 8,952 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 8,214 lots, down 2,748 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 76,861 tons, up 5,108 tons. The SHFE inventory was 100,892 tons, up 684 tons; the LME inventory was 38,975 tons, up 1,175 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract was - 65 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was 175.85 dollars/ton, up 54.36 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 18,320 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production by ILZSG was 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production was 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports were 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports were 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports were 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social inventory of zinc was 160,800 tons, down 900 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets were 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. Automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 11.84%, down 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 11.84%, down 0.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.03%, up 0.73 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.31%, up 0.37 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The Ministry of Finance will implement a proactive fiscal policy, expand domestic demand, and support the construction of a strong domestic market. China released its October economic data, with the growth rates of industry, social consumer goods retail, investment, and real - estate sales all lower than the previous period. The schedule for important US data was determined: September non - farm payrolls will be released on November 20, and the Fed's preferred PCE indicator will be released on November 26. There is a split within the Fed on interest - rate cuts [3]