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中芯国际(688981):25Q3营收、毛利超预期,存储周期+国产替代强化扩产动力:中芯国际(688981):2025年三季报点评
Huachuang Securities·2025-11-17 10:33

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][21]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 171.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.95% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.95%, exceeding previous guidance [5][6]. - The gross margin improved to 25.49%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.57 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.79 percentage points, also surpassing prior expectations [5][6]. - The company anticipates stable to slight growth in Q4 2025 revenue, with a gross margin forecasted between 18% and 20% [5]. - High capacity utilization and an improved product mix contributed to the revenue and gross margin growth, with capacity utilization reaching 95.8% [5][6]. - The demand for consumer electronics is strengthening, driven by a robust supply chain for home appliances and domestic manufacturers gaining overseas market share [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 57,796 million yuan in 2024 to 95,618 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,699 million yuan in 2024 to 7,700 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery trajectory [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.46 yuan in 2024 to 0.96 yuan in 2027 [6]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2026 is estimated at 8 times, leading to a target price of 159.3 yuan per share [5][6].