Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-17 10:26Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's next crop season production increase. In the future, the raw sugar price will adjust in the process of continuous expectation adjustment. In the domestic market, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that the sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than last month's forecast. The total sugar output slightly exceeds expectations. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old sugar in Guangxi has basically been cleared. The delayed start of production in Guangxi has put some pressure on the spot market, while the lack of intention to reduce the price of processed sugar provides support at the lower end [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 359,183 lots, down 11,059 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,622, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -52,091 lots; the valid warehouse receipt forecast is 183, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,090 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,182 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,177 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,296 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative sugar production nationwide is 1,457 million tons, down 85 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 241.88 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 602.29 million tons, up 95.92 million tons; the import volume of sugar in the current month is 55 million tons, down 28 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 316 million tons, up 55 million tons; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,370 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 365 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.37%, up 0.78%; the 60-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.75%, up 0.16% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the second half of October 2025, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 31.108 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; produced 2.068 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a sugar production ratio of 46.02%, higher than 45.91% in the same period last year. As of November 1, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central-southern region had cumulatively crushed 556 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, and cumulatively produced 38.085 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%. India maintains its sugar export policy for the 2025/26 season. In the 2024/25 sugar season, India exported 800,000 tons of sugar, lower than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons [2]