瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand remains generally stable, and the current situation of oversupply may improve with production control [2] - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and the options market sentiment is slightly bullish [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage where supply converges and demand slightly decreases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 21,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,858.50 US dollars/ton, down 18.50 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 552,375 tons, down 825 tons [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread of alumina was - 82 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,630 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,890 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 560 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was - 28.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.62 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2] - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2] - The national alumina开工率 was 85.28%, down 0.70 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.30 million tons, down 1.70 million tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 56.60 million tons, down 0.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] - The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum in 20 days was 10.76%, up 0.31 percentage points; the historical volatility in 40 days was 9.81%, down 0.13 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum's main contract was 11.67%, down 0.0054; the option call - put ratio was 1.24, down 0.0132 [2] 3.7 Industry News - There are different views within the Fed on interest rate cuts; the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for October, showing a slowdown in growth rates of multiple indicators [2] - The country aims to develop new productive forces, focusing on emerging and future industries; the State Council promotes "two - heavy" construction and consumer policies [2] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for sufficient and precise fiscal policies to promote economic balance [2]