铁合金日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5566, up 1.38% with a decrease of 2684 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5792, up 0.77% with a decrease of 2748 in open interest. The fundamentals of both SF and SM show weak supply and demand, with cost increases driving short - term rebounds. They are expected to continue bottom - oscillating [6]. - For trading strategies, in the case of weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to be in bottom - oscillation. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closed at 5662, up 122 for the day and down 30 for the week, with a trading volume of 295372 (up 67133 for the day) and an open interest of 134545 (down 1747 for the day) [2]. - SM main contract: closed at 5792, up 44 for the day and down 28 for the week, with a trading volume of 207209 (up 87774 for the day) and an open interest of 359008 (down 2748 for the day) [2]. Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5280, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5250, unchanged for the day and week; in Qinghai, it was 5300, unchanged for the day and up 30 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5600, up 100 for the day and down 80 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5600, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and week; in Guangxi, it was 5600, unchanged for the day and week; in Jiangsu, it was 5720, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week [2]. Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 382, down 122 for the day and up 10 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 412, down 122 for the day and up 30 for the week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 362, down 122 for the day and up 60 for the week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 270, unchanged for the day and down 30 for the week; SF - SM spread was - 130, up 78 for the day and down 2 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 8 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 242, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 0, unchanged for the day and up 20 for the week [2]. Raw Materials - Manganese ore in Tianjin: Australian lump was priced at 39.7, up 0.2 for the day and 0.7 for the week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.3, unchanged for the day and week; Gabonese lump was 40.5, unchanged for the day and up 0.5 for the week [2]. - Lanthanum semi - coke: in Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged for the day and week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged for the day and week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged for the day and week [2]. Market Judgment Silicon Ferroalloy - On November 17, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate and output of sample enterprises on the supply side both decreased. Attention should be paid to whether a production - cut trend will form when the price reaches a low level. On the demand side, the steel inventory de - stocking statistics at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, due to the dry season and the strong spot price of coal, the electricity prices of ferroalloys in each production area were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost increase drives a short - term rebound. It is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Manganese Silicon - On November 17, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price of Australian lump in Tianjin increased by 0.2 yuan/ton degree. The manganese silicon spot was also stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 20 yuan/ton. The supply side also showed a slight decline. On the demand side, as mentioned above, the steel inventory data at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, the domestic port inventory was at a low level in the same period, the spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the overseas manganese ore quotation also increased steadily. Coupled with a slight increase in the electricity fee in the production area, the cost side increased. Against the background of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to mainly oscillate at the bottom [6]. Important Information - On November 17, the price of Australian lump Mn42.3% in Tianjin was 39.7 yuan/ton degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46.6% was 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and the price of semi - carbonate Mn37% was 35 yuan/ton degree [8]. - A ferroalloy plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia, carried out maintenance on one 25500kva silicon ferroalloy furnace on the afternoon of November 16, reducing the daily output by about 70 tons [9]. Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon [10][13][14][17][19][22].