供应变化有限，盘面回落加深

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the US soybean monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped and then stabilized. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices also declined, with the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widening and the monthly spread of both showing a downward trend. The international soybean market is generally in a state of relatively loose supply, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure. The market's focus on soybean meal may be on the repair of crushing profit, and in the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and the supply side still faces pressure [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the release of the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped but then stabilized due to optimistic expectations for subsequent exports. The price of Brazilian soybeans rebounded slightly. The domestic soybean meal price declined due to the downward pressure from the cost side and the full reflection of previous good news. Rapeseed meal also declined, affected by the fall of soybean meal and its own loose supply - demand situation. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widened, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The monthly supply - demand report for US soybeans is generally positive, but the price increase space is limited. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future trends will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply has an increasing impact, with Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent crushing and export have increased. The overall international soybean market supply is relatively loose [4] - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is relatively loose, with increased oil mill operating rates, sufficient market supply, and increased提货量. The inventory remains high. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the supply of rapeseed is low, and the supply pressure still exists [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation has recently stabilized. The end of the US government shutdown and the Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals to the market, causing the US soybean futures price to rise. The resumption of the soybean export qualifications of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - economic factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean monthly supply - demand report is positive, but the fundamental support is limited. Without significant improvement in exports, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and will generally fluctuate. The focus of the soybean meal market may be on the repair of crushing profit. In the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Soybean meal outperforms rapeseed meal, and the monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to decline [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to wait and see in the short term - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [10]