2025年公募REITs市场11月半月报：较红利股息差已转正，扩募与资产扩容并进-20251117

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The REITs market showed signs of stability and recovery in the first half of November 2025, with the CSI REITs index rising 0.4%. The spread between REITs and dividend - paying stocks turned positive, making REITs more attractive compared to stocks and bonds. - REITs offline subscription remained highly popular, but the narrowing gap between primary and secondary market valuations led to the Shenyang Software Park REIT breaking below its issue price on the offline unlocking day. - Multiple REITs expansion projects were in progress, and the government supported the issuance of public REITs for private projects, with new asset types expected to make their debut. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Volume and Price Stabilized, and the Spread with Dividend Stocks Turned Positive - Index Performance: The CSI REITs index first declined and then rose in the first half of November 2025, accumulating a 0.4% increase. The equity market was in a consolidation phase, with the CSI 300 falling 0.3%, while the CSI Dividend and commodities rose 2.5% and 2.8% respectively. The 10 - year Treasury yield remained around 1.8% [3][12]. - Sector Performance: The consumption sector led the rise (+1.62%), followed by transportation (+1.42%) and rental housing (+1.11%). The industrial park sector was under pressure, with a 1.96% decline, and the logistics sector's decline narrowed to 0.40% [17][18]. - Individual Securities: More than 90% of transportation individual securities rose, and the JINMAO Commercial REIT led the gainers with an 8.19% increase. All the declining individual securities were from the industrial park and logistics sectors [23]. - Liquidity: The average daily turnover rate of the REITs market in the first half of November was 0.49%, up 0.20 pcts from the same period in October. The industrial park sector had a significant increase in turnover rate, but was still dominated by selling pressure [24]. - Dividend Yield and Valuation: As of November 14, 2025, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs was 4.40%, with a 2.58% spread to the 10 - year Treasury yield (at the 59% quantile) and a 0.17% spread to the CSI Dividend yield (at the 82% quantile). The P/NAV of equity - type REITs was 1.27X (at the 69% quantile), and the P/FFO of concession - type REITs was 13.44X (at the 52% quantile) [32][38]. - Internal Rate of Return (IRR): The latest IRR of equity - type REITs was 3.9% (at the 23% quantile), and that of concession - type REITs was 4.1% (at the 7% quantile) [44]. 2. Offline Subscription Remained Popular, and Low Safety Margin Led to Shenyang Software Park REIT Breaking Below Issue Price - New Issues: As of November 14, 2025, there were 77 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 222.5 billion yuan. In the first half of November, the Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT was issued offline, with a scale of 2.448 billion yuan [46][48]. - Subscription Scale: The top - up subscription scale for the Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT rebounded to 514 million yuan due to its larger issuance scale [49]. - Subscription Enthusiasm: 1,052 products from 132 offline institutions participated in the inquiry for the Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT, setting a new record. The offline subscription multiple (excluding invalid quotes) was 236 times, remaining at a high level [53]. - Pricing and Allocation: The Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT was priced at a high level (90% quantile of the inquiry range), with a limited discount. The offline winning rate was 0.68%, and the one - two - level valuation difference continued to narrow [54][64]. - Initial Listing Performance: The gap between primary and secondary market valuations gradually narrowed, and the Shenyang Software Park REIT broke below its issue price on the offline unlocking day. The offline subscription return rate for 100 million yuan of funds from January to November 2025 was 3.49% [66][67]. 3. Multiple Expansion Projects Progressed, and Private Projects Received Strong Support - Dividend Announcements: In the first half of November, 8 REITs announced dividend plans [74]. - Unlocking and Expansion: Three transportation REITs' strategic placement shares were to be unlocked in the second half of November. The holder meetings for the expansion of Huaxia China Resources Youchao REIT and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT were to be held [78]. - Policy Support: The government issued policies to support the issuance of public REITs for private projects and promoted the expansion of the REITs market and the debut of new asset types [79]. 4. New Assets Added to the REITs Market, and the Shenghao Communication Tower Project was Signed - Under - Review Projects: In the first half of November, the E Fund Guangxi Beitou Expressway REIT was accepted by the exchange, and the Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT received an inquiry letter. As of November 14, there were 9 first - issuance projects and 3 expansion projects under review [86]. - New Asset Progress: The Shenghao Group's communication tower public REITs project was signed, and 4 public REITs bidding information was updated in the first half of November [87][89].