银河期货煤炭日报-20251117

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Coal Daily - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] -从业资格号: F3068848 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is currently in a complex situation with supply tightening and demand showing mixed signals. In the short term, coal price increases are expected to slow down [4]. Summary by Section Market Review - On November 17, port market quotes remained stable. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Coal prices in different regions also varied [2]. Important News - On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the power production of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China accelerated. In October, the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions persists. As of November 14, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the overall domestic supply tightened. Imported coal prices rose despite weakening Chinese demand [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was average. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while procurement from Japan and South Korea was mediocre, and there was still no improvement in India's procurement demand. Most power plants were operating stably with a load of 60% - 70% and medium - to - high inventory levels. Most power plants preferred to fulfill long - term contracts, and only a small amount of rigid demand was purchasing at discounted prices [4]. - Market Outlook: With the arrival of a large - scale cooling wave, residential electricity and heating demand will rise, driving up power plant daily consumption. The railway transportation has returned to normal, with the average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line at 1.3 million tons and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau at around 30. As of November 17, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 23.9 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory depletion, while inland power plants had neutral inventory. In general, coal production in major producing areas is low, supply is tightening, power plant inventories are decreasing, and coal prices are expected to slow down in the short term [4]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing inventory and consumption data of different ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, and power plants in coastal 8 provinces and inland 17 provinces [7][9]