尿素早评20251117：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. The low valuation of urea is the result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but from the perspective of drivers, the urea price is supported at a low level. It is recommended to take profit on the sold options and focus on long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On November 14, UR01 closed at 1,652 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1,727 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.23%; UR09 closed at 1,748 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.34% [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - On November 14, the spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton, 1,480 yuan/ton, and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Hebei dropped 10 yuan to 1,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%, while the prices in Northeast and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1,650 yuan/ton and 1,590 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spreads - On November 14, the spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was - 127 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day; the spread between 01 - 05 was - 75 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - On November 14, the anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - On November 14, the prices of 45% compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,980 yuan/ton and 2,530 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,093 yuan/ton and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,652 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,657 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,643 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,652 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,649 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Take profit on the sold options and focus on long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term [1]