贵金属期货：震荡偏多，中期走势或分化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for precious metal futures is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the medium - term trends may diverge [2] 2. Core View of the Report - After a weekly - level market correction, precious metals started a new upward trend, with silver's increase and momentum significantly greater than that of gold [2] - The end of the US federal government shutdown, the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets' decline, and the potential Fed rate cuts all impact the precious metal market [2] - The "pause" in Sino - US trade contradictions has cooled market risk - aversion sentiment, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for gold [2] - The Trump administration's "tariff refund" plan, with a cost of up to $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $300 billion, and the strong call for Fed rate cuts may lead to a divergence in the trends of gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Precious metals resumed their upward trend after a correction, and silver outperformed gold. The end of the government shutdown, Sino - US trade situation, and Fed rate - cut expectations all affect the market [2][3] 3.2 Factors to Watch - Key factors include Fed rate - cut expectations, international geopolitics, and better - than - expected US economic data [4] 3.3 Data Presentations - Multiple charts present data on precious metal futures, including internal and external prices, trading volume, and positions of gold and silver futures; dollar index, US interest rates, and their relationship with gold prices; various US macroeconomic data; and fund positions and price ratios of precious metals [5][11][15]