策略专题：“十五五”投资机遇

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report explores investment opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" from two dimensions: strategic directions indicated by planning suggestions and historical focus industries from previous five-year plans [1] - The three main policy lines of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are summarized as "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with "Development" focusing on advanced manufacturing and new productivity, "Livelihood" emphasizing domestic demand expansion, and "Security" reinforcing national defense and key technology areas [1][2] - The report indicates that while certain industry themes may create long-term excess returns if performance continues to validate, the likelihood of sustained excess returns throughout the entire five-year planning cycle is low [3] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, breaking down economic and social development goals into three main lines: "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with 12 key tasks identified [2][8] - The "Development" line focuses on enhancing traditional industries, scaling new pillar industries, and ensuring supportive industries for high-quality growth, with a strong emphasis on technological self-reliance [9][10] - The "Livelihood" line aims to address issues related to population structure changes and economic development, focusing on expanding domestic demand and improving residents' income levels to boost consumption in health, education, and elderly care sectors [11][12] - The "Security" line highlights the importance of national defense and ecological safety, with a focus on military modernization, key resource security, and the development of critical technologies [14][17] Group 3 - The investment guidance indicates that key themes and newly emphasized industries may not achieve significant excess returns over the entire five-year cycle, citing examples from previous plans where certain sectors underperformed [15][16] - The report notes that while industries like new energy vehicles have shown potential for long-term excess returns, the possibility of sustained excess returns throughout the five-year planning cycle remains limited due to over-optimistic pricing and cyclical nature of industries [15]