每日核心期货品种分析-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic futures market on November 17, 2025, showed a mixed performance. Some commodities like lithium carbonate and shipping index (European line) rose, while others such as silver and gold futures declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and market factors affecting their price trends [6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: Copper prices showed a weak - upward trend. Although copper mines were in short supply, the increase in scrap copper and partial resumption of smelters led to an upward trend in production. Demand was transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Overall, copper was expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state, and attention should be paid to US economic data and interest - rate cut probabilities [10][12]. - Lithium Carbonate: It had a strong performance, hitting the daily limit. Supply was increasing, and demand was strong due to the performance of energy - storage batteries. The market was in a tight - balance state, supporting the strong performance of the lithium carbonate futures [13]. - Silver and Gold: Silver futures dropped by over 4%, and gold futures fell by over 3% [8]. Energy - Crude Oil: The supply - surplus situation was exacerbated by OPEC +'s production increase in the fourth quarter, and demand was weakening. Saudi Aramco lowered prices, and US production reached a record high. It was expected that crude oil prices would oscillate weakly [14][15]. - Asphalt: Supply decreased, and demand was weakening. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, asphalt prices were expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Chemicals - PP: Although downstream demand was in the peak season, the follow - up of orders was limited. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, PP prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - Plastic: The开工 rate was stable, but downstream demand was weakening. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, plastic prices were expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - PVC: Supply was still at a relatively high level, and demand was weak. With the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, PVC prices were expected to oscillate and face pressure [21]. Coal - Coking Coal: Prices showed an upward trend. Although there were short - term factors affecting supply, the overall supply was expected to be in a tight - balance state. Market sentiment was boosted by macro - policy expectations [22][23]. Others - Urea: Supply was relatively loose, but the release of export quotas supported the market. It was expected that the Indian tender situation would affect the domestic urea market sentiment [24].