银河期货尿素日报-20251117

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, November 17, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Object: Urea Market Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1662 (+13/+0.79%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were weakly stable with decent transactions. Prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1480 - 1520 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1450 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On November 17, the daily output was 204,400 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from the previous working day and 22,400 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on that day was 84.53%, a 4.00% increase from 80.53% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: The impact of the new export quota news faded, market sentiment cooled, and the spot factory prices of urea in mainstream regions declined [5] - Regional Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory price led the increase before, now the market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, and it was expected that the factory price would decline. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the factory price followed the increase before and was expected to follow the decline. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to remain stable. The Northeast demand was stable [5] - Supply and Demand: The maintenance devices returned one after another, and the daily output increased to around 204,000 tons. The fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the international price's influence on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China basically ended, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the compound fertilizer factory operating rate declined, and the demand showed a downward trend [5] - Inventory: Urea production enterprise inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to around 1.5 million tons, still at a high level [5] - Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited, the agricultural demand ended, the compound fertilizer had not started on a large scale, and the spot market sentiment was still low. The fourth - batch export quota was expected to be around 600,000 tons, which would boost the domestic market sentiment in the short term. The urea fundamentals were still loose, and it was expected to continue the downward trend [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short selling [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts include urea daily output, operating rate, coal - based and gas - based operating rates and outputs, enterprise and port inventories, compound fertilizer operating rate and factory inventory, melamine operating rate, and Northeast arrival volume from 2022 to 2025 [11][15]