Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - On Monday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating rebound, and a slight gain. The price closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 70 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - drivers, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Monday, the methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, weak decline, and a significant drop. The price closed at 2,029 yuan/ton, down 2.50%. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 116 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol futures were dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Monday, the crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, rising then falling, and a slight gain. The price closed at 459.2 yuan/barrel, up 0.07%. There were differences between long and short positions. With supply surplus competing against seasonal demand recovery and geopolitical factors interfering, oil prices might fluctuate widely [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons (0.40%). The bonded area inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%, and the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.13 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.75 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.96 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. It was expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises would further decline next week [8]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market continued its good development trend [9]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales were as high as 916,000 vehicles, and it was certain that the annual sales would exceed one million, and might even reach 1.1 million [9]. Methanol - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9761 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 112,000 tons [10]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83%. The acetic acid operating rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 6.54%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 237 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 109 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 457 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.279 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 246,500 tons. As of the week of November 13, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 369,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 21,200 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, unchanged from the previous week and a decrease of 65 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 462,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427.6 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 6.413 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.166 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.519 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 346,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 410.4 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 798,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 3.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) from the August average. As of November 11, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts (37.82%) from the October average [12]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main contract was 15,315 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 515 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,040 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main contract was 2,029 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 26 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of crude oil was 426.0 yuan/barrel, the futures price of the main contract was 459.2 yuan/barrel, and the basis was - 33.2 yuan/barrel [13]. 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][15][17] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][44]
橡胶甲醇原油：多空强弱分化能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-17 11:12