Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-17 11:07Group 1 - The report highlights that 2026 will be a pivotal year for China's AI investment strategy, marking the first year of domestic computing power industrialization with significant advancements in AI chip performance and supply [3][4]. - Domestic AI chip shipments are expected to reach 1.91 million units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 110%, driven by strong demand from internet companies and telecom operators [7][8]. - The market share of domestic AI chips is projected to rise to approximately 38% in the first half of 2025, up from 15% in 2023, indicating a rapid increase in domestic production capabilities [7][8]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with expectations that by 2026, Chinese models will not only close the performance gap but may surpass in certain areas [3][4]. - Innovations in model training paradigms are being pursued, focusing on balancing performance, efficiency, and cost, with breakthroughs expected in long-context processing and multi-modal capabilities [3][4][68]. - The software industry is entering an optimal investment window, with many companies reporting that AI revenue now constitutes over 10% of their total income, driven by advancements in large model applications [3][4]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the demand for computing power is expected to surge as AI applications become more prevalent, with significant capital expenditures anticipated from major tech companies [29][32]. - The growth in AI token consumption is projected to double every 2-3 months, reflecting the increasing reliance on AI technologies across various sectors [29][30]. - By 2028, China's intelligent computing power scale is expected to more than double compared to current levels, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [38][39]. Group 4 - The report outlines that the domestic AI chip supply chain is gradually proving its capabilities, with companies like Cambricon forecasting revenues between 5 to 7 billion yuan in 2025 [28]. - Huawei is set to launch its Ascend 950 series chips in early 2026, further solidifying its position in the AI chip market [28]. - The report notes that the liquid cooling market for servers is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.8% projected from 2024 to 2029, driven by the adoption of advanced cooling solutions in data centers [48]. Group 5 - The report identifies a shift in power supply architecture from traditional UPS systems to high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems, which is expected to create new opportunities in the market [43][44]. - The IDC market is anticipated to experience a second turning point as domestic computing power begins to take a more prominent role, with significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics [49][51]. - The report highlights that the overall market for AI applications is expected to see exponential growth, particularly in areas such as multi-modal and agent-based applications, which are driving increased demand for computing resources [39][40].