2026年宏观经济与资产配置展望：百炼成钢，乘势而上

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The report highlights a positive macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of economic recovery driven by supportive monetary and fiscal policies in the US and globally [1][3][4] - The US economy is projected to experience a soft landing as inflation expectations have improved, with CPI growth remaining below 3.0% as of September 2025 [21][34] - Global liquidity is expected to remain accommodative, with major economies shifting focus from inflation control to growth stabilization, potentially leading to a synchronized recovery in global trade [1][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Resilience - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic economy, with internal risk management showing positive results, particularly in addressing local government debt and stabilizing small financial institutions [2][4][6] - Consumer spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth, supported by ongoing government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][6][8] - Investment quality is expected to improve, transitioning from quantity-focused to quality-focused investments, with significant policy support anticipated in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][6][8] Group 3: Policy Environment - The macro policy outlook suggests a continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary measures, with expectations of sustained investment growth driven by major projects in 2026 [6][8][39] - Consumer subsidy policies are likely to persist, aimed at enhancing purchasing power and stimulating consumption [6][8][39] - The real estate sector is entering a monitoring phase, with potential for continued policy support if economic pressures remain [6][8][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The report maintains a positive outlook on equity markets, anticipating a gradual upward trend, with growth and cyclical sectors expected to perform well [4][6][8] - Bond markets may face constraints due to low interest rates, but opportunities for trading exist as rates decline [4][6][8] - Long-term prospects for gold remain favorable, with expectations of continued appreciation in the RMB exchange rate [4][6][8]