银河期货甲醇日报-20251117

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report, dated November 17, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - Methanol futures continue to decline. With increased international production, improved imports, and high domestic supply, combined with stable downstream demand and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the high - inventory situation and the approaching Iranian gas - restriction season, methanol is likely to continue its downward trend [2][4] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market - The futures price closed at 2029, down 52 or 2.5% [2] Spot Market - Production areas: Inner Mongolia South Line at 1960 yuan/ton, North Line at 1940 yuan/ton; Guanzhong at 1880 yuan/ton, Yulin at 1900 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 1980 yuan/ton, Henan at 2020 yuan/ton [2] - Consumption areas: Southern Shandong at 2100 yuan/ton, Northern Shandong at 2150 yuan/ton, Hebei at 2080 yuan/ton; Southwest: Sichuan - Chongqing at 1980 yuan/ton, Yunnan - Guizhou at 2040 yuan/ton [2] - Ports: Taicang at 2000 yuan/ton, Ningbo at 2000 yuan/ton, Guangzhou at 1990 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Important Information - In the week from November 8 - 14, 2025, international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,072,505 tons, an increase of 21,896 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 73.52%, up 1.50% [3] Group 6: Logic Analysis Supply - Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample supply [4] Import - US dollar prices are falling rapidly, the import premium is widening. Iranian plants are all operating normally, non - Iranian operation rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operation rate has returned to a high level. The price difference between China and Europe has decreased, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 690,000 tons in November, and non - Iranian supplies are abundant [4] Demand - The MTO plant operation rate has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others have sub - full loads [4] Inventory - Port arrivals have slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; inland enterprise inventory has narrow fluctuations. However, with increased arrivals and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6] Group 8: Related Charts - Charts show historical data on methanol port inventory, enterprise inventory, order backlog, and various plant operation rates from 2021 - 2025 [7][9]