沪铜周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown, the short - term liquidity problem in the market is solved, and the market risk preference increases. There is still uncertainty about the Fed rate cut in December. The FedWatch tool shows that the cumulative rate cut by the end of 2026 is only 80 basis points. Fundamentally, the copper mine supply remains tight, but with the increase in scrap copper and the partial resumption of smelters, copper production shows an increasing trend. The demand side is in the transition from peak to off - peak season, and some emerging industries provide continuous demand. Due to the game between tight supply at the mine end and weakening demand, copper is expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range. Attention should be paid to the economic data released after the US government resumes work and the change in the probability of rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis Macro - On November 12 local time, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the US government shutdown. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 16.7% [3]. Supply - In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a total crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected impact on production of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October have gradually resumed production, and with the increase in copper prices, the production enthusiasm has increased, and output is expected to rise. Scrap copper supply has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources [3]. Demand - With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted. Traditional industries have seen demand pre - empted due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing and is currently higher than the same period last year. As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [3]. 3.2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper oscillated and rose. The weekly high was 87,920 yuan/ton, the low was 85,750 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.53%, and the range increase was 1.12% [5]. 3.3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of November 17, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was 10 yuan/ton. Sellers tried to maintain high prices, but downstream buyers were less willing to accept high prices, putting pressure on the premium [10]. 3.4. London Copper Spread Structure - As of November 14, LME copper rose 0.99% during the week, closing at $10,850/ton, mainly due to the end of the US government shutdown and the increase in market risk preference [14]. 3.5. Copper Concentrate Supply - Customs data on November 14 showed that the copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The inventory continued to recover but was still lower than the same period last year, and the tight supply of raw materials at the mine end had not improved. SMM expects the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance in 2025 to be - 330,000 metal tons. In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to October, the cumulative import was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [19]. 3.6. Scrap Copper Supply - From January to September 2025, China imported 1.4496 million metal tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. After the increase in copper prices, scrap copper supply increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. Some regions may resume government support for recycled copper rod enterprises, but the implementation details are yet to be determined after next week's tax payment [25]. 3.7. Smelter Fees - As of November 14, China's spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. In the 2026 long - term contract negotiation, there was a "zero - processing - fee" situation (Antofagasta locked 50% of the ore volume with Chinese smelters at $0/dry ton), and the market expects the remaining 50% of the ore volume to have a negative price [29]. 3.8. Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's estimated electrolytic copper production in China was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,400 tons. The estimated production in November is 1.0876 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, but with the resumption of some enterprises and the increase in production enthusiasm, output is expected to rise. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters was 85.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper was 63.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In October 2025, China imported 438,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to October, the cumulative import was 4.456 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [33]. 3.9. Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%. With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor [38]. 3.10. Copper Products - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62%; the copper tube production was 121,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons or 11.29%. Last week, the orders in the refined copper rod market decreased week - on - week due to the increase in copper prices and weak downstream demand. The trading of copper strips weakened, and downstream procurement was cautious. The copper tube market was dragged down by the low operating rate of the air - conditioning industry. The copper foil market was relatively active due to the high production schedule of downstream battery factories [43]. 3.11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%; the installed wind power capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the national average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours compared with the same period last year [47]. 3.12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% [54]. 3.13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales. In addition, new energy vehicle exports exceeded 2 million for the first time. From January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.4% [58]. 3.14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges LME - As of November 14, LME copper inventory decreased by 175 tons to 135,700 tons. Although there was inventory accumulation, it was still significantly lower than the same period last year [63]. COMEX - As of November 14, COMEX copper inventory was 381,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23% and a year - on - year increase of 328%. The US continued to hoard copper, causing an imbalance in the global copper inventory supply [63]. Shanghai and Guangdong Bonded Areas - This week, the cumulative spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 115,200 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. Some smelter export goods arrived and were stored in the warehouse this week, and inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [68]. Shanghai Futures Exchange - As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% and higher than the same period last year [3][68].