——10月经济数据点评：总量有压力，降息空间正在打开

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, economic data growth slowed down overall under a high base, with both supply and demand sides weakening synchronously, and growth in industry, investment, consumption, and exports all decelerating. The transformation between old and new drivers continued, with service consumption and high - end manufacturing remaining resilient, showing a characteristic of "traditional sectors under pressure, emerging sectors providing support". There was a divergence between volume and price performance, and it may be difficult to sustainably drive industrial product prices. The window for interest rate cuts is expected to open from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. Instead of speculating on the timing of interest rate cuts, it is advisable to seize the opportunity to take action before the implementation [2][8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Production - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.9%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous value and lower than market expectations. The month - on - month growth rate of 0.17% was also weaker than the seasonal level, affected by the high - base effect, fewer working days, and weakening external demand orders. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative to - 2.1%. In terms of sectors, the year - on - year growth rate of the mining industry decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 4.5%, and the manufacturing industry had the greatest drag, with its year - on - year growth rate decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 4.9%. However, high - end manufacturing showed outstanding performance, with the added value of the automobile and railway, ship equipment manufacturing industries increasing by 16.8% and 15.2% year - on - year respectively, and the computer and communication equipment manufacturing industry growing by 8.9% [5][8][9]. Investment - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of single - month fixed - asset investment dropped to - 11%, the lowest since March 2020. Private investment declined at an accelerated pace, with the year - on - year decline in single - month investment widening by 7.9 percentage points to - 16.8%. Infrastructure and real estate were the main drags, pulling down the year - on - year growth rate by 3.6 and 3.0 percentage points respectively. The year - on - year decline in single - month real estate investment widened to - 23.2%, and the declines in sales area and amount widened to - 19.6% and - 25.1% respectively. Insufficient funds for real estate enterprises restricted the start and completion of projects, and construction and installation projects pulled down the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment by 7 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in single - month investment in broad - based infrastructure widened to - 12.1%, and it remains to be seen whether the investment of policy - based financial instruments will translate into physical work. The year - on - year growth rate of single - month investment in the manufacturing industry decreased by 4.7 percentage points to - 6.7%. Weak domestic demand and tariff uncertainties inhibited corporate capital expenditures, but investment in equipment and tools still maintained a relatively high growth rate of 6.9%, indicating that equipment renewal policies still played a supporting role [8][9]. Consumption - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods slightly decreased to 2.9%. On the one hand, it was affected by the weakening of automobile sales, with the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of automobiles at - 6.6%. After excluding automobiles, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.0%, 0.8 percentage points faster than in September. On the other hand, household appliances also had a negative impact, with the consumption amount decreasing by 14.6% year - on - year, possibly due to the fading effect of "trade - in" subsidies and the high - base effect. Service consumption showed resilience, with the year - on - year growth rate of catering revenue rising to 3.8%, and the cumulative growth rate of service retail sales from January to October accelerating to 5.3%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate of retail sales of goods during the same period. The holiday economy drove the recovery of consumption related to culture, sports, entertainment, and tourism. In terms of structure, demand for durable goods such as gold and silver jewelry (37.6%) and communication equipment (23.2%) was strong, but consumption in the automobile and real - estate chains remained sluggish, and the recovery of domestic demand was uneven [8][9]. Price and Policy Outlook - In October, the narrowing decline of PPI indicated an improvement in prices, but the industrial added value after excluding price factors weakened significantly, and fixed - asset investment had been negative for four consecutive months. There was a divergence between volume and price performance, and it may be difficult to sustainably drive industrial product prices. If the "volume" further slows down, the actual improvement and sustainability of prices may be limited. In this context, the necessity of increasing monetary policy support may rise. The window for interest rate cuts is expected to open from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - free) will decline to 1.65% - 1.7% this year, and the yield of the taxable bond will decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [8][9].