固定收益专题：如何理解央行利率比价

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Currently, various interest rate parity relationships are generally within a reasonable range, which provides further room for subsequent monetary easing. With the decline of deposit rates, it will further broaden the space for subsequent monetary policy easing to drive down the social financing cost [4][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comparison between Central Bank Interest Rates and Market Interest Rates - At the beginning of this year, the market interest rate deviated significantly from the policy rate, but it has now returned to the normal level. The DR007 rate has gradually fallen back to near the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate [1][9]. - In a smooth interest rate transmission mechanism, short - term money market interest rates revolve around the policy rate center and affect the overall market interest rate level through the financial system [1][9]. Comparison between Commercial Banks' Asset - side and Liability - side Interest Rates - Deposit rates and lending rates have been declining in tandem, which is expected to open up more policy operation space. Before 2024, the trends of deposit and lending rates diverged, but after 2024, the deposit rate turned downward, and the pressure on the narrowing net interest margin has been relieved to some extent [2][12]. Comparison of Yields of Different Types of Assets - Long - term: The comprehensive loan yield after deducting non - performing loans and taxes is highly consistent with the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. In the second quarter of this year, the weighted average loan interest rate was 3.29%, and the calculated weighted average loan yield was 1.52%, close to the 1.54% average yield of 5 - year Treasury bonds in the same period. Similar results can be obtained for mortgage loans [2][14]. - Short - term: The yield trends of different assets at the short - end are similar, with small spreads, indicating a stable parity relationship [2][17]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Terms The previously abnormal yield curve has now returned to a normal state. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spread is currently around 40bps, which is basically at a normal historical level [3][20]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Risks - Subsequent reduction of lending rates may require a decline in bond yields. Enterprise lending rates cannot be lower than government bond yields such as Treasury bonds and local bonds [4][22]. - High - interest 30 - year local bonds may restrict the downward movement of lending rates. Considering tax factors, the loan lower - limit determined by government bonds may be higher, which can reduce competitive low - price lending by banks but may also limit the decline in financing costs to some extent [4][25].