原油延续震荡关注地缘风险，芳烃类关注调油逻辑持续性

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking clear short - term drivers, with geopolitical factors potentially becoming the short - term main line. The aromatics sector should focus on the sustainability of the blending oil logic. Methanol lacks upward drivers in the short term but has mid - term long - making logic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strengthening of refined oil in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the three drivers show little change. The tight supply pattern of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. Geopolitical factors in the Caribbean are worthy of attention, and a military action by the US against Venezuela could provide a short - term high - selling opportunity [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly line. Maintain an oscillatory view, and wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - Logic: It has been relatively strong recently. The rebound is driven by short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending oil logic. In the medium term, it faces the risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Geopolitical factors also need attention [5][8]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait for a rebound on the daily level to re - enter short positions [8]. Rubber - Logic: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. Observe the inventory accumulation rate during the peak season. There is currently no fundamental driver [9]. - Technical Analysis: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. There is a short - term support at 15130. Try long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upside space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The internal contradiction is not significant. Focus on the cost - side driver of butadiene, which may face inventory - swelling pressure in the medium term [12]. - Technical Analysis: Medium - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 10500 [12]. PX - Logic: The polyester industry's internal contradiction is not large. After the hype of production cuts fades, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [16]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production - cut expectations [19]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - Logic: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side driver of crude oil [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 6530 [23]. Methanol - Logic: High inventory in ports suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for the opportunity to go long when Iranian gas restrictions are implemented and the price breaks through 2125. Geopolitical factors may also provide a long - entry opportunity [25][27]. - Technical Analysis: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily line. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2125, or take the initiative to stop - profit. Look for long - entry opportunities after the price breaks through 2125 [27]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue, with weak domestic demand. There is no upward driver [29]. - Technical Analysis: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a short - term pressure at 4625 [31]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: High supply and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 3950 [32]. Plastic - Logic: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [34]. - Technical Analysis: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term support at 6800 [34]. Soda Ash - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental driver [36]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Hold remaining short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward driver in supply - demand [40]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 2400 [40].