宏观周报（11月第2周）：10月基本面继续弱化探底-20251117

Macroeconomic Overview - October fundamentals continued to weaken, with real growth indicators showing significant decline, while price indicators remained supported by base effects and rebounds[2] - New home sales and investment in real estate further weakened, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates declining more sharply[2] - Social financing in October was 815 billion CNY, significantly below the expected 1,528.4 billion CNY and the previous value of 3,529.6 billion CNY[9] - New credit in October was 220 billion CNY, compared to an expected 460 billion CNY and a previous value of 1,290 billion CNY[9] Economic Data Analysis - Industrial value added in October grew by 4.9%, below the expected 5.5% and previous 6.5%[15] - Retail sales in October increased by 2.9%, slightly above the expected 2.7% but below the previous 3%[15] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%[15] - Real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 14.5%[15] Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a volume decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.40%[8] - Bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.1 basis points[8] - The U.S. stock market initially rose but later fell, with the Dow Jones up by 0.34% and the S&P 500 up by 0.08% before declining[8] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.26%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 251 basis points against the dollar[8]